Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Hurt, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.6% K%
Range
7.9% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal4 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason2.92
ERA current pace4.88
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight37%
ERA
1.98 2.77 3.65 4.52 5.31
FIP
1.41 2.35 3.39 4.44 5.38
K%
17.0% 19.7% 22.8% 25.8% 28.6%
BB%
5.1% 6.4% 7.9% 9.4% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
34
ERA4.88
28
BB%12.1%
17 -43 vs proj
K%27.0%
79 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.293
70 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
77 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo96.4
79
Hard-hit allowed40.5%
39
Whiff%31.0%
94 +57 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+110
95
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hurt, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.293 2026-07-06: 0.2792026-07-07: 0.2842026-07-08: 0.2842026-07-09: 0.2842026-07-10: 0.2842026-07-11: 0.2842026-07-12: 0.2932026-07-13: 0.2932026-07-14: 0.2932026-07-15: 0.2932026-07-16: 0.2932026-07-17: 0.293 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hurt, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurt, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 56.0%Changeup: 34.1%Slider: 10.0% FF56% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 56%CH 34%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurt, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mphSlider: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 55.5% 167 104 limited sample
CH 36.5% 110 110 limited sample
SL 8.0% 24 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.32
K% Δ+0.044
Sample32.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.6----
Batters Faced261----
K%22.6%7.9% to 25.4%+/- 8.8%
BB%8.1%0.7% to 8.6%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%21.3%11.2% to 30.2%+/- 9.5%
HR/91.440.05 to 1.30+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3280.128 to 0.383+/- 0.127
Barrel% Allowed8.0%0.8% to 9.8%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.560.27 to 4.83+/- 2.28
FIP4.310.39 to 5.81+/- 2.71
WHIP1.2710.441 to 1.611+/- 0.585
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

19 career BF

xwOBA0.134
K%9.8%
BB%1.2%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHH

19 career BF

xwOBA0.127
K%10.6%
BB%0.9%
Barrel2.7%