Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Bachar, Lake

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
18.7% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.02
ERA current pace3.70
ERA rolling p503.84
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.51 3.14 3.84 4.53 5.16
FIP
3.06 3.69 4.40 5.10 5.74
K%
21.9% 23.4% 25.0% 26.7% 28.2%
BB%
7.6% 8.5% 9.4% 10.4% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
87
ERA3.70
61
BB%10.0%
38
K%25.6%
74
xwOBA allowed0.292
73 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
34
Fastball velo94.3
47
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
81
Whiff%27.7%
85
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Slider Stuff+103
63
Curveball Stuff+104
73
Sinker Stuff+70
0
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bachar, Lake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.292 2026-08-25: 0.2982026-08-26: 0.2982026-08-27: 0.2962026-08-28: 0.2962026-08-29: 0.2962026-08-30: 0.2912026-08-31: 0.2912026-09-01: 0.2912026-09-02: 0.2912026-09-03: 0.2912026-09-04: 0.2922026-09-05: 0.292 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bachar, Lake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.5%Slider: 23.9%Curveball: 18.4%Sweeper: 15.6%Split-Finger: 8.0%Sinker: 4.7% FF29% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 29%SL 24%CU 18%ST 16%FS 8%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.8 mphSL90 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 86.2 mphCU86 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.5 mphST86 mphSplit-Finger: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.2 mphFS84 mphSinker: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 42.7% 277 103 qualified
FB 34.6% 224 106 qualified
CB 20.8% 135 104 limited sample
SI 1.9% 12 70 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sweeper 28%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.79
K% Δ+0.011
Sample78.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.3----
Batters Faced266----
K%24.5%18.7% to 30.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.3%6.6% to 13.2%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%27.4%22.9% to 32.6%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.230.53 to 2.24+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3110.267 to 0.359+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.7% to 14.6%+/- 4.9%
ERA4.492.52 to 6.23+/- 1.85
FIP4.042.74 to 6.49+/- 1.87
WHIP1.3771.021 to 1.707+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

173 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%21.5%
BB%11.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

190 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%22.8%
BB%7.9%
Barrel12.7%