Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Morgan, Eli

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
15.8% to 29.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
19
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal4 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace5.40
ERA rolling p504.16
Observed weight29%
ERA
2.27 3.16 4.16 5.15 6.04
FIP
3.59 4.12 4.70 5.29 5.82
K%
17.2% 19.7% 22.4% 25.1% 27.6%
BB%
6.1% 7.4% 8.8% 10.2% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.59
10
ERA5.40
17
BB%10.0%
33 -24 vs proj
K%20.0%
33 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.400
1 -58 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
76
Fastball velo91.2
8
Hard-hit allowed41.8%
31
Whiff%26.0%
73 +15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+106
78
Fastball Stuff+95
14
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Slider Stuff+100
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morgan, Eli · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.400 2026-07-06: 0.3992026-07-07: 0.3992026-07-08: 0.3992026-07-09: 0.3992026-07-10: 0.3992026-07-11: 0.3992026-07-12: 0.3992026-07-13: 0.4002026-07-14: 0.4002026-07-15: 0.4002026-07-16: 0.4002026-07-17: 0.400 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morgan, Eli · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 39%39%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morgan, Eli · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.3%Changeup: 33.8%Slider: 28.9% FF37% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 37%CH 34%SL 29% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morgan, Eli · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.2 mphFF91 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 76.9 mphCH77 mphSlider: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.7% 102 95 limited sample
CH 33.8% 94 106 limited sample
SL 29.5% 82 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 42%, 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 29%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.58
K% Δ-0.029
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.5----
Batters Faced146----
K%22.9%15.8% to 29.9%+/- 7.0%
BB%8.2%5.0% to 12.0%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%24.0%18.9% to 31.8%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.460.32 to 2.34+/- 1.01
xwOBA Against0.3050.231 to 0.364+/- 0.067
Barrel% Allowed6.8%2.4% to 9.6%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.820.94 to 5.88+/- 2.47
FIP4.372.74 to 5.65+/- 1.46
WHIP1.3471.004 to 1.666+/- 0.331
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

529 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%19.5%
BB%7.5%
Barrel4.7%
vs RHH

690 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%20.7%
BB%6.0%
Barrel5.3%