Morgan, Eli
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
percentile
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.64 |
| ERA current pace | 5.40 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.16 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 36.7% | 102 | 95 | limited sample |
| CH | 33.8% | 94 | 106 | limited sample |
| SL | 29.5% | 82 | 100 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.58 |
| K% Δ | -0.029 |
| Sample | 21.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 146 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.9% | 15.8% to 29.9% | +/- 7.0% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.0% to 12.0% | +/- 3.5% |
| Whiff% | 24.0% | 18.9% to 31.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.46 | 0.32 to 2.34 | +/- 1.01 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.305 | 0.231 to 0.364 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.8% | 2.4% to 9.6% | +/- 3.6% |
| ERA | 3.82 | 0.94 to 5.88 | +/- 2.47 |
| FIP | 4.37 | 2.74 to 5.65 | +/- 1.46 |
| WHIP | 1.347 | 1.004 to 1.666 | +/- 0.331 |
529 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
690 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |