Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Kuhnel, Joel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
7.6% to 25.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.55
ERA current pace4.84
ERA rolling p504.09
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.33 3.17 4.09 5.01 5.85
FIP
3.14 3.63 4.18 4.72 5.21
K%
10.6% 13.2% 15.9% 18.7% 21.2%
BB%
3.6% 4.8% 6.2% 7.6% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
13
ERA4.84
29
BB%7.5%
67 -18 vs proj
K%12.7%
2 -44 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.355
13 -59 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
62
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed40.8%
38
Whiff%19.3%
19 -37 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Sinker Stuff+99
29
Changeup Stuff+102
51
Cutter Stuff+98
20
Fastball Stuff+91
5
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kuhnel, Joel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.355 2026-07-06: 0.3552026-07-07: 0.3552026-07-08: 0.3552026-07-09: 0.3552026-07-10: 0.3552026-07-11: 0.3552026-07-12: 0.3552026-07-13: 0.3552026-07-14: 0.3552026-07-15: 0.3552026-07-16: 0.3552026-07-17: 0.355 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kuhnel, Joel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kuhnel, Joel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 51.9%Cutter: 31.9%Changeup: 6.2%4-Seam Fastball: 5.5%Curveball: 3.3%Slider: 1.3% SI52% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 52%FC 32%CH 6%FF 6%CU 3%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kuhnel, Joel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 52% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphCutter: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.5 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.1 mphCH90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphSlider: 1% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 54.5% 211 99 qualified
FC 25.1% 97 98 limited sample
CH 7.2% 28 102 limited sample
SL 6.5% 25 97 limited sample
FB 5.2% 20 91 limited sample
CB 1.6% 6 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, Curveball 30%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.04
K% Δ-0.093
Sample38.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.0----
Batters Faced123----
K%22.0%7.6% to 25.3%+/- 8.8%
BB%6.2%0.8% to 9.1%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%23.9%13.8% to 28.3%+/- 7.2%
HR/91.540.32 to 2.27+/- 0.97
xwOBA Against0.2910.176 to 0.371+/- 0.098
Barrel% Allowed6.8%1.7% to 9.9%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.801.14 to 6.04+/- 2.45
FIP3.792.15 to 5.04+/- 1.45
WHIP1.2060.649 to 1.619+/- 0.485
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

193 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%10.1%
BB%2.8%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHH

267 career BF

xwOBA0.195
K%10.9%
BB%2.2%
Barrel4.0%