Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Gilbert, Logan

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
21.9% to 33.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
79
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal6 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason3.51
ERA current pace3.36
ERA rolling p503.40
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.26 2.80 3.40 4.00 4.54
FIP
3.12 3.40 3.70 4.01 4.28
K%
24.0% 25.1% 26.3% 27.5% 28.6%
BB%
5.0% 5.5% 6.1% 6.6% 7.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.05
89
ERA3.36
71
BB%6.2%
87
K%25.9%
76
xwOBA allowed0.295
70
Barrel allowed9.8%
18 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
78
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
32
Whiff%26.6%
79
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+108
91
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Slider Stuff+105
76
Changeup Stuff+107
89
Curveball Stuff+106
97
Cutter Stuff+106
90
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gilbert, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-08-22: 0.2972026-08-23: 0.2972026-08-24: 0.2972026-08-25: 0.2982026-08-26: 0.2982026-08-27: 0.2982026-08-28: 0.2982026-08-29: 0.2982026-08-30: 0.2982026-08-31: 0.2952026-09-01: 0.2952026-09-02: 0.295 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gilbert, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.0%Slider: 24.4%Split-Finger: 14.4%Changeup: 7.6%Sweeper: 7.2%Cutter: 5.8% FF40% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 40%SL 24%FS 14%CH 8%ST 7%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphSplit-Finger: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.0 mphFS82 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mphCutter: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.2 mphFC91 mphSinker: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 76.5 mphCU76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.6% 555 108 qualified
SL 27.9% 364 105 qualified
CH 10.3% 134 107 limited sample
FC 9.8% 128 106 limited sample
CB 9.0% 117 106 limited sample
SI 0.4% 5 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Slider 35%, Split-Finger 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.11
K% Δ-0.007
Sample158.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings78.0----
Batters Faced314----
K%26.6%21.9% to 33.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%5.8%3.6% to 8.0%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.6%24.1% to 32.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.271.04 to 2.09+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.2870.256 to 0.312+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.4% to 11.8%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.472.31 to 5.20+/- 1.44
FIP3.482.69 to 4.18+/- 0.74
WHIP1.0230.848 to 1.358+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1706 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%27.4%
BB%5.2%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1921 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%25.5%
BB%4.6%
Barrel8.5%