Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Baz, Shane

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.2% K%
Range
19.8% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace4.19
ERA rolling p504.01
Observed weight68%
ERA
3.08 3.52 4.01 4.50 4.94
FIP
3.15 3.40 3.67 3.94 4.19
K%
19.7% 20.7% 21.8% 23.0% 24.0%
BB%
7.0% 7.6% 8.3% 9.0% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
44
ERA4.19
44
BB%8.4%
55
K%20.8%
38 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
41
Barrel allowed7.4%
55
Fastball velo95.9
73
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
35
Whiff%19.3%
19 -42 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+104
81
Cutter Stuff+102
57
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Changeup Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+101
41
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Baz, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.322 2026-07-07: 0.3272026-07-08: 0.3272026-07-09: 0.3282026-07-10: 0.3282026-07-11: 0.3282026-07-12: 0.3282026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3222026-07-15: 0.3222026-07-16: 0.3222026-07-17: 0.3222026-07-18: 0.322 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Baz, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baz, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.7%Knuckle Curve: 32.9%Cutter: 17.3%Changeup: 8.3%Sinker: 7.8%Other: 0.1% FF34% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 34%KC 33%FC 17%CH 8%SI 8%FA 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baz, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphKnuckle Curve: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.3 mphKC85 mphCutter: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphOther: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 79.6 mphFA80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.2% 426 101 qualified
CB 32.8% 409 104 qualified
FC 18.8% 235 102 qualified
CH 8.2% 102 98 limited sample
SI 6.0% 75 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Knuckle Curve 27%, Cutter 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.14
K% Δ-0.024
Sample115.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.1----
Batters Faced611----
K%23.2%19.8% to 29.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.5%6.4% to 10.8%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%24.5%20.5% to 28.5%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.341.00 to 1.96+/- 0.48
xwOBA Against0.3080.280 to 0.330+/- 0.025
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.7% to 11.9%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.053.38 to 5.87+/- 1.24
FIP3.893.24 to 4.63+/- 0.69
WHIP1.3301.119 to 1.572+/- 0.226
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

572 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%22.6%
BB%8.7%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

638 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%21.1%
BB%7.8%
Barrel9.9%