Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Knuckle Curve 27%, Cutter 15%.
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026
Baz, Shane
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team BAL
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.64 |
| ERA current pace | 4.48 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.11 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
ERA
3.22
3.64
4.11
4.57
4.99
FIP
3.46
3.69
3.95
4.21
4.44
K%
19.6%
20.9%
22.3%
23.7%
24.9%
BB%
7.1%
7.8%
8.6%
9.4%
10.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
43
Barrel allowed9.3%
31
Fastball velo96.2
78
Hard-hit allowed39.5%
49
K%20.9%
39
-15 vs proj
Whiff%17.6%
11
-52 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.332
35
-20 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
34%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 34.5% | 368 | 101 | qualified |
| CB | 33.3% | 355 | 105 | qualified |
| FC | 18.7% | 199 | 101 | limited sample |
| CH | 7.5% | 80 | 97 | limited sample |
| SI | 6.1% | 65 | 103 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.43 |
| K% Δ | -0.023 |
| Sample | 68.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 142.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 608 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.2% | 19.8% to 29.0% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 6.4% to 10.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Whiff% | 24.5% | 20.5% to 28.5% | +/- 4.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.34 | 1.00 to 1.96 | +/- 0.48 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.280 to 0.330 | +/- 0.025 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 6.7% to 11.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 4.05 | 3.38 to 5.86 | +/- 1.24 |
| FIP | 3.89 | 3.24 to 4.63 | +/- 0.69 |
| WHIP | 1.330 | 1.119 to 1.572 | +/- 0.226 |
vs LHH
572 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |
vs RHH
638 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 9.9% |