Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Ginn, J.t.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace3.19
ERA rolling p503.53
Observed weight52%
ERA
2.24 2.85 3.53 4.22 4.83
FIP
3.51 3.80 4.11 4.43 4.71
K%
19.4% 20.9% 22.5% 24.1% 25.5%
BB%
7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 9.8% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
33 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
62 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
46
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
58
K%21.4%
43
Whiff%23.3%
52
xwOBA allowed0.312
51
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ginn, J.t. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3122026-05-19: 0.3122026-05-21: 0.3032026-05-23: 0.3032026-05-24: 0.3082026-05-25: 0.3082026-05-26: 0.3082026-05-28: 0.3082026-05-29: 0.3082026-05-30: 0.3082026-05-31: 0.3082026-06-01: 0.312 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ginn, J.t. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 37.2%Cutter: 17.3%Slider: 16.5%Changeup: 16.4%4-Seam Fastball: 12.7% MIX SI 37%FC 17%SL 16%CH 16%FF 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.3, IVB 2.3SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1FCSL: HB -0.1, IVB 3.4SLCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.8CHFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.6FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 37.0% 313 102 qualified
SL 17.3% 146 103 limited sample
FC 17.3% 146 96 limited sample
CH 15.3% 129 99 limited sample
FB 13.1% 111 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Slider 26%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.78
K% Δ-0.012
Sample61.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.5----
Batters Faced293----
K%22.5%18.1% to 28.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.5%4.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%24.4%22.3% to 31.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.360.77 to 2.31+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3110.246 to 0.328+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.5% to 11.9%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.972.70 to 6.36+/- 1.83
FIP3.992.87 to 4.56+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2601.026 to 1.549+/- 0.261
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

273 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%18.8%
BB%7.8%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

286 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%23.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.5%