Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Ginn, J.t.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal6 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace3.67
ERA rolling p503.75
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.40 3.04 3.75 4.46 5.11
FIP
3.67 3.97 4.30 4.63 4.92
K%
19.7% 20.8% 22.1% 23.4% 24.6%
BB%
7.7% 8.4% 9.3% 10.1% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
51
ERA3.67
57
BB%10.1%
33 -34 vs proj
K%21.3%
41
xwOBA allowed0.313
51
Barrel allowed7.0%
60 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
68
Whiff%25.2%
67
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+101
44
Cutter Stuff+95
6
Mithrandir Stuff+99
28
Sinker Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+101
41
Fastball Stuff+94
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ginn, J.t. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.313 2026-07-06: 0.3122026-07-07: 0.3122026-07-08: 0.3122026-07-09: 0.3102026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3122026-07-13: 0.3122026-07-14: 0.3132026-07-15: 0.3132026-07-16: 0.3132026-07-17: 0.313 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ginn, J.t. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 35.1%Changeup: 19.7%Cutter: 18.4%Slider: 15.4%4-Seam Fastball: 11.4% SI35% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 35%CH 20%FC 18%SL 15%FF 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphCH88 mphCutter: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.3 mphFC90 mphSlider: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.5 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.6% 470 101 qualified
CH 18.3% 242 101 qualified
FC 17.7% 234 95 qualified
SL 16.9% 223 101 qualified
FB 11.6% 153 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Slider 26%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.31
K% Δ-0.012
Sample104.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.1----
Batters Faced292----
K%22.5%18.1% to 28.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.5%4.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%24.4%22.3% to 31.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.360.77 to 2.31+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3120.246 to 0.328+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.5% to 11.9%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.982.70 to 6.36+/- 1.83
FIP3.992.87 to 4.56+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2601.026 to 1.549+/- 0.261
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

273 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%18.8%
BB%7.8%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

286 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%23.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.5%