Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Ginn, J.t.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.6% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal6 metrics
25
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-01
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace3.60
ERA rolling p503.69
Observed weight71%
ERA
2.28 2.95 3.69 4.43 5.09
FIP
3.59 3.90 4.25 4.59 4.90
K%
19.4% 20.5% 21.6% 22.7% 23.7%
BB%
7.6% 8.2% 8.9% 9.6% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA3.60
63
BB%9.5%
43 -26 vs proj
K%20.8%
41
xwOBA allowed0.312
51
Barrel allowed6.5%
66 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
64
Whiff%24.4%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-01
Changeup Stuff+101
42
Cutter Stuff+95
7
Mithrandir Stuff+100
26
Sinker Stuff+100
32
Slider Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+94
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ginn, J.t. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-08-21: 0.3082026-08-22: 0.3082026-08-23: 0.3082026-08-24: 0.3082026-08-25: 0.3062026-08-26: 0.3062026-08-27: 0.3122026-08-28: 0.3122026-08-29: 0.3122026-08-30: 0.3122026-08-31: 0.3122026-09-01: 0.312 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ginn, J.t. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 37.2%Changeup: 19.9%Cutter: 16.1%Slider: 15.4%4-Seam Fastball: 11.2%Curveball: 0.2% SI37% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 37%CH 20%FC 16%SL 15%FF 11%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.3 mphFC90 mphSlider: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 38.7% 652 100 qualified
CH 18.2% 306 101 qualified
SL 16.7% 281 100 qualified
FC 15.9% 267 95 qualified
FB 10.6% 178 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Slider 26%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.38
K% Δ-0.018
Sample139.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.6----
Batters Faced324----
K%22.6%18.1% to 28.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.5%4.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%24.4%22.3% to 31.3%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.400.77 to 2.31+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3110.246 to 0.328+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.5% to 11.9%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.982.70 to 6.35+/- 1.83
FIP3.992.87 to 4.57+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2611.026 to 1.548+/- 0.261
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

273 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%18.8%
BB%7.8%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

286 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%23.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.5%