Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Mlodzinski, Carmen

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
16.6% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace3.94
ERA rolling p503.83
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.73 3.25 3.83 4.41 4.94
FIP
2.96 3.31 3.70 4.10 4.45
K%
17.0% 18.1% 19.4% 20.6% 21.7%
BB%
6.0% 6.6% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
37
ERA3.94
54
BB%7.3%
72
K%18.2%
21 -21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.342
21 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
53
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed47.1%
4
Whiff%18.9%
19 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+100
35
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Slider Stuff+103
64
Curveball Stuff+106
94
Cutter Stuff+103
61
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mlodzinski, Carmen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-08-25: 0.3472026-08-26: 0.3472026-08-27: 0.3472026-08-28: 0.3472026-08-29: 0.3472026-08-30: 0.3462026-08-31: 0.3462026-09-01: 0.3462026-09-02: 0.3462026-09-03: 0.3422026-09-04: 0.3422026-09-05: 0.342 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mlodzinski, Carmen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.7%Split-Finger: 25.6%Sinker: 17.6%Curveball: 11.3%Sweeper: 10.7%Slider: 3.7% FF28% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 28%FS 26%SI 18%CU 11%ST 11%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphSplit-Finger: 26% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.8 mphFS86 mphSinker: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.9 mphCU84 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphST83 mphSlider: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mphCutter: 3% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.4 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.8% 389 100 qualified
SI 24.7% 261 105 qualified
SL 21.1% 223 103 qualified
CB 15.2% 161 106 limited sample
FC 2.1% 22 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Sinker 15%, Split-Finger 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.40
K% Δ-0.029
Sample111.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.7----
Batters Faced301----
K%21.0%16.6% to 27.7%+/- 5.5%
BB%7.8%5.0% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%21.6%17.8% to 27.3%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.130.48 to 1.76+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3040.259 to 0.332+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed6.5%3.7% to 9.2%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.532.30 to 5.25+/- 1.48
FIP3.882.51 to 4.50+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3241.077 to 1.568+/- 0.245
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

376 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%18.4%
BB%7.2%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

437 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%19.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel5.2%