Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Basso, Brady

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
12.1% to 24.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal7 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.14
ERA current pace6.07
ERA rolling p505.02
Observed weight46%
ERA
3.78 4.37 5.02 5.67 6.25
FIP
2.88 3.29 3.75 4.20 4.61
K%
13.2% 14.9% 16.9% 18.8% 20.5%
BB%
4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.6% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.66
9
ERA6.07
10
BB%5.0%
96 +46 vs proj
K%15.4%
8 -35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
57
Barrel allowed5.1%
85 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
21
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
59
Whiff%17.4%
10 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Changeup Stuff+98
25
Curveball Stuff+97
3
Cutter Stuff+106
92
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Slider Stuff+108
90
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Basso, Brady · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.307 2026-10-04: 0.3072026-10-05: 0.3072026-10-06: 0.3072026-10-07: 0.3072026-10-08: 0.3072026-10-09: 0.3072026-10-10: 0.3072026-10-11: 0.3072026-10-12: 0.3072026-10-13: 0.3072026-10-14: 0.3072026-10-15: 0.307 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Basso, Brady · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Basso, Brady · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.8%Curveball: 17.8%Slider: 14.5%Cutter: 11.1%Sinker: 8.0%Changeup: 4.3% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CU 18%SL 15%FC 11%SI 8%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Basso, Brady · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.5 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 77.4 mphCU77 mphSlider: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.6 mphSL84 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSinker: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.6% 184 104 limited sample
CB 16.8% 71 97 limited sample
FC 13.7% 58 106 limited sample
SL 12.1% 51 108 limited sample
SI 8.8% 37 95 limited sample
CH 5.0% 21 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.213 vs 0.236 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Cutter 18%, Curveball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.74
K% Δ-0.056
Sample42.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings59.8----
Batters Faced265----
K%21.0%12.1% to 24.4%+/- 6.1%
BB%8.9%5.9% to 12.4%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%22.0%16.6% to 28.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.210.32 to 1.93+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3070.245 to 0.347+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.0% to 9.1%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.332.00 to 5.50+/- 1.75
FIP4.252.89 to 5.32+/- 1.22
WHIP1.3921.060 to 1.696+/- 0.318
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.213
K%15.0%
BB%6.9%
Barrel3.3%
vs RHH

108 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%13.2%
BB%7.6%
Barrel4.0%