Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Weissert, Greg

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
16.0% to 27.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace3.80
ERA rolling p503.68
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.29 2.95 3.68 4.41 5.06
FIP
3.45 3.86 4.31 4.76 5.16
K%
17.2% 19.2% 21.5% 23.7% 25.7%
BB%
5.7% 6.8% 8.1% 9.4% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.5%
68
Barrel allowed5.4%
78 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
80
K%21.5%
44
Whiff%20.9%
32
xwOBA allowed0.305
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weissert, Greg · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.3042026-05-24: 0.3042026-05-25: 0.2972026-05-26: 0.2972026-05-28: 0.2972026-05-29: 0.2972026-05-30: 0.3112026-05-31: 0.3112026-06-01: 0.305 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weissert, Greg · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weissert, Greg · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 35.0%4-Seam Fastball: 28.1%Sweeper: 18.2%Changeup: 9.1%Slider: 7.2%Curveball: 2.4% MIX SI 35%FF 28%ST 18%CH 9%SL 7%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weissert, Greg · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 1.0, IVB 2.3SIFF: HB 0.2, IVB 1.6FFST: HB -1.0, IVB 3.0STCH: HB -0.6, IVB 3.5CHSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.9SLCU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.0CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.4% 138 106 limited sample
FB 27.4% 104 102 limited sample
SL 25.9% 98 107 limited sample
CH 8.2% 31 106 limited sample
CB 2.1% 8 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Sinker 28%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.12
K% Δ+0.001
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.5----
Batters Faced170----
K%21.4%16.0% to 27.4%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.2%5.4% to 11.9%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%20.6%17.7% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.240.57 to 2.06+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3010.256 to 0.351+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.7%4.3% to 11.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.922.01 to 5.66+/- 1.83
FIP4.083.16 to 5.42+/- 1.13
WHIP1.3011.077 to 1.710+/- 0.316
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

293 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%18.3%
BB%9.6%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

437 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.9%
BB%6.0%
Barrel7.4%