Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Wesneski, Hayden

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
18.6% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
63
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
83
ERA3.25
76
BB%8.1%
61
K%18.7%
27
xwOBA allowed0.301
67
Barrel allowed5.1%
86
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed39.9%
39
Whiff%22.0%
45
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-20
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+106
77
Cutter Stuff+105
86
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wesneski, Hayden · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-10-09: 0.3012026-10-10: 0.3012026-10-11: 0.3012026-10-12: 0.3012026-10-13: 0.3012026-10-14: 0.3012026-10-15: 0.3012026-10-16: 0.3012026-10-17: 0.3012026-10-18: 0.3012026-10-19: 0.3012026-10-20: 0.301 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wesneski, Hayden · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 29.5%4-Seam Fastball: 24.3%Sinker: 18.9%Cutter: 15.1%Changeup: 11.9%Curveball: 0.2% ST30% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 30%FF 24%SI 19%FC 15%CH 12%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sweeper: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.5 mphST81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSinker: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.5 mphSI93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 72.7 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.8% 189 106 limited sample
FB 23.7% 156 97 limited sample
SI 19.3% 127 100 limited sample
FC 14.5% 95 105 limited sample
CH 13.7% 90 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sweeper 25%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample60.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.4----
Batters Faced290----
K%22.4%18.6% to 30.2%+/- 5.8%
BB%7.7%5.3% to 10.1%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.8%19.2% to 28.6%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.621.17 to 2.38+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3270.274 to 0.354+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.0% to 12.5%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.502.80 to 5.68+/- 1.44
FIP4.473.35 to 4.97+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2410.977 to 1.483+/- 0.253
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

414 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%19.8%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

576 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%22.8%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.5%