Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Wesneski, Hayden

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
18.6% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace3.18
ERA rolling p503.76
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.72 3.21 3.76 4.31 4.80
FIP
3.35 3.63 3.93 4.24 4.52
K%
18.5% 20.3% 22.3% 24.4% 26.2%
BB%
6.1% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
88
ERA3.18
77
BB%8.9%
51 -17 vs proj
K%20.9%
41
xwOBA allowed0.304
61 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
68 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
50
Whiff%23.9%
58
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+103
60
Cutter Stuff+102
52
Fastball Stuff+93
9
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Sinker Stuff+102
52
Slider Stuff+104
72
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wesneski, Hayden · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.304 2026-08-25: 0.3062026-08-26: 0.3062026-08-27: 0.3062026-08-28: 0.3072026-08-29: 0.3072026-08-30: 0.3072026-08-31: 0.3072026-09-01: 0.3072026-09-02: 0.3072026-09-03: 0.3042026-09-04: 0.3042026-09-05: 0.304 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wesneski, Hayden · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 30.5%4-Seam Fastball: 23.9%Sinker: 18.0%Cutter: 14.5%Changeup: 12.6%Curveball: 0.3% ST31% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 31%FF 24%SI 18%FC 15%CH 13%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sweeper: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphSinker: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphFC89 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.6 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 72.7 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 29.7% 128 104 limited sample
FB 23.2% 100 93 limited sample
SI 19.3% 83 102 limited sample
CH 14.6% 63 103 limited sample
FC 13.2% 57 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sweeper 25%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.32
K% Δ-0.015
Sample39.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced280----
K%22.4%18.6% to 30.2%+/- 5.8%
BB%7.7%5.3% to 10.1%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.8%19.2% to 28.6%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.621.17 to 2.38+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3270.274 to 0.354+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.0% to 12.5%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.502.80 to 5.68+/- 1.44
FIP4.473.34 to 4.97+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2410.977 to 1.481+/- 0.252
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

414 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%19.8%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

576 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%22.8%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.5%