Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 29%, Sinker 28%, 4-Seam Fastball 28%.
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026
Kirby, George
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.60 |
| ERA current pace | 4.18 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.02 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
ERA
3.04
3.50
4.02
4.54
5.01
FIP
3.10
3.37
3.68
3.99
4.26
K%
19.0%
19.9%
21.0%
22.1%
23.1%
BB%
4.5%
4.9%
5.4%
5.9%
6.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
42
ERA4.18
45
BB%5.6%
92
K%20.2%
37
-28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.305
61
Barrel allowed6.6%
63
+27 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
83
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
23
Whiff%21.2%
36
-16 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+106
76
Mithrandir Stuff+107
91
Sinker Stuff+107
89
Slider Stuff+109
93
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+103
63
Cutter Stuff+102
46
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
29%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 29.8% | 410 | 106 | qualified |
| SL | 27.6% | 379 | 109 | qualified |
| SI | 20.5% | 282 | 107 | qualified |
| CB | 10.2% | 140 | 103 | limited sample |
| CH | 7.9% | 108 | 103 | limited sample |
| FC | 4.0% | 55 | 102 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.74 |
| K% Δ | -0.040 |
| Sample | 155.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 152.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 636 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.2% | 20.1% to 31.1% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 4.8% | 2.9% to 6.6% | +/- 1.9% |
| Whiff% | 23.1% | 19.5% to 28.3% | +/- 4.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.20 | 0.89 to 1.92 | +/- 0.51 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.279 to 0.334 | +/- 0.028 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.4% | 6.6% to 11.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| ERA | 3.44 | 2.84 to 5.37 | +/- 1.26 |
| FIP | 3.42 | 2.67 to 4.16 | +/- 0.75 |
| WHIP | 1.110 | 0.997 to 1.378 | +/- 0.190 |
vs LHH
1384 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |
vs RHH
1439 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |