Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Slider 33%, Sweeper 23%.
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026
Scholtens, Jesse
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TB
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 32
Status IL-15
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.09 |
| ERA current pace | 3.82 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.98 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
ERA
2.02
2.95
3.98
5.01
5.93
FIP
3.42
3.95
4.53
5.12
5.64
K%
14.7%
17.0%
19.4%
21.9%
24.1%
BB%
4.8%
6.0%
7.3%
8.6%
9.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
78
Barrel allowed10.8%
16
-29 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
23
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
61
K%18.3%
21
-27 vs proj
Whiff%18.0%
13
-36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.346
22
-42 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
32%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 47.9% | 256 | 104 | qualified |
| SI | 27.5% | 147 | 101 | limited sample |
| FB | 24.7% | 132 | 104 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.57 |
| K% Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 37.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 151 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.0% | 13.4% to 28.2% | +/- 7.4% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 4.5% to 12.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| Whiff% | 22.9% | 16.6% to 29.1% | +/- 6.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.16 | 0.56 to 2.68 | +/- 1.06 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.299 | 0.267 to 0.376 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.1% | 4.2% to 12.5% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 4.39 | 2.12 to 7.55 | +/- 2.72 |
| FIP | 4.11 | 2.96 to 6.05 | +/- 1.54 |
| WHIP | 1.375 | 1.112 to 1.830 | +/- 0.359 |
vs LHH
195 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |
vs RHH
239 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 15.6% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 8.2% |