Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Holderman, Colin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.7% K%
Range
17.1% to 31.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
88
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
74
Arsenal5 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace1.78
ERA rolling p502.95
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.20 2.03 2.95 3.86 4.69
FIP
1.70 2.47 3.32 4.17 4.94
K%
20.7% 23.0% 25.5% 28.0% 30.2%
BB%
6.3% 7.6% 9.0% 10.4% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.86
97
ERA1.78
97
BB%7.5%
68 +33 vs proj
K%29.3%
91 +40 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
88 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
46
Fastball velo97.1
88
Hard-hit allowed49.4%
2
Whiff%28.5%
86 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+100
19
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holderman, Colin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.274 2026-07-07: 0.2732026-07-08: 0.2732026-07-09: 0.2732026-07-10: 0.2752026-07-11: 0.2752026-07-12: 0.2742026-07-13: 0.2742026-07-14: 0.2742026-07-15: 0.2742026-07-16: 0.2742026-07-17: 0.2742026-07-18: 0.274 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holderman, Colin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holderman, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.1%Sweeper: 35.1%Curveball: 9.5%4-Seam Fastball: 5.6%Cutter: 0.7% SI49% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 49%ST 35%CU 9%FF 6%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holderman, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 49% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 97.0 mphSI97 mphSweeper: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.3 mphST85 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 83.1 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.5 mphFF98 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 53.0% 178 102 limited sample
SL 37.2% 125 98 limited sample
CB 5.7% 19 100 limited sample
FB 3.9% 13 96 limited sample
FC 0.3% 1 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.300 vs 0.279 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 36%, Sweeper 27%, Cutter 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.24
K% Δ+0.066
Sample37.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.3----
Batters Faced158----
K%22.7%17.1% to 31.2%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.7%6.5% to 14.4%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%25.0%20.3% to 32.6%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.370.54 to 2.16+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3040.239 to 0.342+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.5%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.021.79 to 6.59+/- 2.40
FIP4.172.76 to 7.21+/- 2.22
WHIP1.3210.992 to 1.724+/- 0.366
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

323 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%20.0%
BB%11.3%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

437 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel6.3%