Holderman, Colin
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.66 |
| ERA current pace | 1.40 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.05 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 52.7% | 157 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 36.6% | 109 | 99 | limited sample |
| CB | 6.4% | 19 | 99 | limited sample |
| FB | 4.0% | 12 | 92 | limited sample |
| FC | 0.3% | 1 | 110 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.62 |
| K% Δ | +0.077 |
| Sample | 23.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 35.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 161 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.6% | 17.1% to 31.2% | +/- 7.0% |
| BB% | 9.7% | 6.5% to 14.4% | +/- 3.9% |
| Whiff% | 25.0% | 20.3% to 32.6% | +/- 6.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.37 | 0.54 to 2.16 | +/- 0.81 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.304 | 0.239 to 0.342 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.5% | 3.9% to 10.9% | +/- 3.5% |
| ERA | 4.02 | 1.79 to 6.59 | +/- 2.40 |
| FIP | 4.17 | 2.76 to 7.21 | +/- 2.22 |
| WHIP | 1.321 | 0.992 to 1.724 | +/- 0.366 |
323 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.300 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 11.3% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |
437 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 20.3% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |