Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Holderman, Colin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.6% K%
Range
17.1% to 31.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace1.40
ERA rolling p503.05
Observed weight27%
ERA
1.19 2.07 3.05 4.03 4.92
FIP
1.82 2.64 3.55 4.46 5.28
K%
19.7% 22.3% 25.1% 27.9% 30.5%
BB%
6.0% 7.5% 9.0% 10.6% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.7%
77 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.7%
18 -37 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
87
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
19
K%30.3%
92 +39 vs proj
Whiff%27.8%
82 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.269
85 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holderman, Colin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.2592026-05-24: 0.2592026-05-25: 0.2662026-05-26: 0.2662026-05-28: 0.2682026-05-29: 0.2682026-05-30: 0.2682026-05-31: 0.2652026-06-01: 0.269 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holderman, Colin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holderman, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.7%Sweeper: 36.2%Curveball: 7.2%4-Seam Fastball: 5.7%Cutter: 1.1% MIX SI 50%ST 36%CU 7%FF 6%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holderman, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.1, IVB 1.9SIST: HB -0.2, IVB 2.7STCU: HB 1.2, IVB 4.2CUFF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.4FFFC: HB 0.0, IVB 1.9FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 52.7% 157 104 limited sample
SL 36.6% 109 99 limited sample
CB 6.4% 19 99 limited sample
FB 4.0% 12 92 limited sample
FC 0.3% 1 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.300 vs 0.279 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 36%, Sweeper 27%, Cutter 24%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.62
K% Δ+0.077
Sample23.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.8----
Batters Faced161----
K%22.6%17.1% to 31.2%+/- 7.0%
BB%9.7%6.5% to 14.4%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%25.0%20.3% to 32.6%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.370.54 to 2.16+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3040.239 to 0.342+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.5%3.9% to 10.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.021.79 to 6.59+/- 2.40
FIP4.172.76 to 7.21+/- 2.22
WHIP1.3210.992 to 1.724+/- 0.366
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

323 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%20.0%
BB%11.3%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

437 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel6.3%