Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026
Watson, Ryan
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.58 |
| ERA current pace | 4.96 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.73 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
ERA
2.73
3.68
4.73
5.78
6.73
FIP
2.14
3.13
4.23
5.33
6.32
K%
11.4%
14.3%
17.5%
20.8%
23.7%
BB%
4.2%
5.5%
7.0%
8.4%
9.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
54
Barrel allowed14.5%
2
-54 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed43.6%
25
K%19.3%
27
Whiff%21.5%
36
xwOBA allowed0.403
2
-71 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
55
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
23%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 23.6% | 126 | 107 | limited sample |
| FB | 23.0% | 123 | 100 | limited sample |
| SL | 21.0% | 112 | 101 | limited sample |
| SI | 17.6% | 94 | 98 | limited sample |
| CB | 14.8% | 79 | 101 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.47 |
| K% Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 37.7 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 140 | -- | -- |
| K% | 18.3% | 0.1% to 20.0% | +/- 10.0% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 0.1% to 8.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 20.3% | 0.7% to 24.9% | +/- 12.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.27 | 0.00 to 1.48 | +/- 0.74 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.289 | 0.002 to 0.339 | +/- 0.168 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.3% | 0.1% to 9.6% | +/- 4.8% |
| ERA | 4.49 | 0.88 to 6.44 | +/- 2.78 |
| FIP | 3.57 | 0.38 to 6.19 | +/- 2.91 |
| WHIP | 1.263 | 0.183 to 1.502 | +/- 0.659 |
vs LHH
1 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.005 |
| K% | 0.3% |
| BB% | 0.2% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |
vs RHH
2 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.005 |
| K% | 0.3% |
| BB% | 0.1% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |