Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Watson, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
18.3% K%
Range
0.1% to 20.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal6 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.53
ERA current pace4.31
ERA rolling p504.41
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.45 3.38 4.41 5.44 6.37
FIP
1.89 2.86 3.95 5.04 6.02
K%
13.4% 15.7% 18.2% 20.7% 22.9%
BB%
4.6% 5.6% 6.8% 7.9% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
56
ERA4.31
42
BB%7.5%
70
K%19.7%
33
xwOBA allowed0.342
21 -58 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.4%
11 -41 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
40
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
46
Whiff%21.2%
38
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+102
36
Cutter Stuff+107
92
Fastball Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+99
28
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Watson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-08-25: 0.3442026-08-26: 0.3442026-08-27: 0.3442026-08-28: 0.3442026-08-29: 0.3442026-08-30: 0.3432026-08-31: 0.3432026-09-01: 0.3432026-09-02: 0.3432026-09-03: 0.3422026-09-04: 0.3422026-09-05: 0.342 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Watson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 25.1%Sweeper: 22.3%4-Seam Fastball: 19.5%Curveball: 16.1%Sinker: 15.8%Split-Finger: 1.2% FC25% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 25%ST 22%FF 20%CU 16%SI 16%FS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 83.2 mphCU83 mphSinker: 16% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.0 mphFS89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 23.9% 156 107 limited sample
FB 22.0% 144 101 limited sample
SL 22.0% 144 101 limited sample
CB 16.1% 105 102 limited sample
SI 16.1% 105 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.14
K% Δ+0.008
Sample68.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.8----
Batters Faced139----
K%18.3%0.1% to 20.0%+/- 10.0%
BB%7.5%0.1% to 8.6%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%20.3%0.6% to 24.9%+/- 12.1%
HR/91.290.00 to 1.50+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.2870.002 to 0.336+/- 0.167
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.6%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.460.87 to 6.39+/- 2.76
FIP3.570.38 to 6.19+/- 2.91
WHIP1.2290.177 to 1.461+/- 0.642
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%