Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Bednar, David

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.9% K%
Range
20.5% to 36.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
85
Arsenal3 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.00
93
ERA2.47
92
BB%7.1%
77
K%27.3%
82
xwOBA allowed0.264
92
Barrel allowed4.7%
89
Fastball velo96.1
75
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
74
Whiff%29.1%
90
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-20
Fastball Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Curveball Stuff+105
84
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bednar, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.264 2026-10-09: 0.2642026-10-10: 0.2642026-10-11: 0.2642026-10-12: 0.2642026-10-13: 0.2642026-10-14: 0.2642026-10-15: 0.2642026-10-16: 0.2642026-10-17: 0.2642026-10-18: 0.2642026-10-19: 0.2642026-10-20: 0.264 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bednar, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bednar, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.1%Split-Finger: 40.5%Curveball: 18.4% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%FS 40%CU 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bednar, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 40% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.8 mphFS91 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 76.9 mphCU77 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.7% 325 102 qualified
CB 34.3% 170 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Curveball 37%, Split-Finger 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample74.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.5----
Batters Faced174----
K%26.9%20.5% to 36.3%+/- 7.9%
BB%8.6%4.5% to 12.6%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.9%21.7% to 33.4%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.170.43 to 2.03+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2920.236 to 0.346+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.4% to 14.5%+/- 5.0%
ERA3.181.90 to 6.42+/- 2.26
FIP3.232.05 to 7.02+/- 2.49
WHIP1.1680.959 to 1.571+/- 0.306
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

651 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%25.8%
BB%9.2%
Barrel10.8%
vs RHH

761 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%28.1%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.5%