Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Garcia, Rico

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.14
ERA current pace0.77
ERA rolling p503.16
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.84 2.47 3.16 3.85 4.48
FIP
2.84 3.24 3.69 4.13 4.53
K%
22.4% 24.2% 26.2% 28.2% 30.0%
BB%
5.4% 6.5% 7.8% 9.0% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
43 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.4%
93 +47 vs proj
Fastball velo95.3
68
Hard-hit allowed27.6%
96
K%31.3%
94 +40 vs proj
Whiff%37.2%
99 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.239
97 +51 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Garcia, Rico · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2172026-05-19: 0.2182026-05-21: 0.2262026-05-23: 0.2332026-05-24: 0.2332026-05-25: 0.2332026-05-26: 0.2402026-05-28: 0.2402026-05-29: 0.2392026-05-30: 0.2392026-05-31: 0.2432026-06-01: 0.239 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Garcia, Rico · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 37%37%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 28%28% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Rico · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.9%Changeup: 26.0%Slider: 21.8%Curveball: 18.4% MIX FF 34%CH 26%SL 22%CU 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Rico · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.0FFCH: HB -1.2, IVB 1.9CHSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.4SLCU: HB -0.0, IVB 3.6CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.3% 118 108 limited sample
CH 26.3% 88 108 limited sample
SL 21.3% 71 100 limited sample
CB 17.1% 57 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 22%, Curveball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-3.47
K% Δ+0.083
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.4----
Batters Faced267----
K%23.1%19.3% to 29.0%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.7%4.8% to 10.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%25.2%20.5% to 30.0%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.340.91 to 2.29+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3170.266 to 0.328+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.2% to 10.7%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.242.44 to 6.16+/- 1.86
FIP3.953.12 to 5.32+/- 1.10
WHIP1.2471.051 to 1.691+/- 0.320
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%21.0%
BB%7.4%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

200 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Barrel6.9%