Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Garcia, Rico

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal5 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.14
ERA current pace2.61
ERA rolling p503.52
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.17 2.81 3.52 4.22 4.86
FIP
3.11 3.49 3.91 4.33 4.71
K%
22.2% 23.8% 25.6% 27.4% 29.0%
BB%
5.4% 6.4% 7.5% 8.6% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.81
99
ERA2.61
85
BB%7.8%
64
K%27.7%
83 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.274
87 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.6%
68 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
64
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
83
Whiff%33.4%
98 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+107
82
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Fastball Stuff+108
88
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Slider Stuff+102
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Garcia, Rico · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.274 2026-07-07: 0.2762026-07-08: 0.2762026-07-09: 0.2762026-07-10: 0.2762026-07-11: 0.2762026-07-12: 0.2712026-07-13: 0.2712026-07-14: 0.2742026-07-15: 0.2742026-07-16: 0.2742026-07-17: 0.2742026-07-18: 0.274 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Garcia, Rico · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Rico · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.7%Changeup: 27.8%Slider: 20.7%Curveball: 17.8% FF34% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 34%CH 28%SL 21%CU 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Garcia, Rico · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 86.3 mphCH86 mphSlider: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.7 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 86.0 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.5% 143 108 limited sample
CH 28.0% 113 107 limited sample
SL 20.6% 83 102 limited sample
CB 15.9% 64 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 22%, Curveball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.63
K% Δ+0.047
Sample43.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.3----
Batters Faced270----
K%23.0%19.3% to 29.0%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.7%4.8% to 10.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%25.1%20.5% to 30.0%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.340.91 to 2.29+/- 0.69
xwOBA Against0.3170.266 to 0.328+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.2% to 10.7%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.242.44 to 6.16+/- 1.86
FIP3.953.12 to 5.32+/- 1.10
WHIP1.2471.051 to 1.691+/- 0.320
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%21.0%
BB%7.4%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

200 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Barrel6.9%