Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Foley, Jason

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
13.8% to 29.7%
Live Δ
--
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
74
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal4 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace3.46
ERA rolling p503.38
Observed weight21%
ERA
1.72 2.51 3.38 4.26 5.05
FIP
2.45 2.94 3.49 4.04 4.53
K%
13.6% 16.7% 20.1% 23.5% 26.5%
BB%
4.2% 5.5% 7.1% 8.6% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-08-31
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+110
97
Sinker Stuff+114
100
Slider Stuff+104
66
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Foley, Jason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 30%30%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Foley, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 46.7%Slider: 25.8%4-Seam Fastball: 14.2%Split-Finger: 13.3% SI47% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 47%SL 26%FF 14%FS 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Foley, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphSlider: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.5 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.5 mphFS90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 51.9% 54 114 limited sample
SL 31.7% 33 104 limited sample
FB 16.3% 17 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.273 vs 0.251 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 50%, Sinker 22%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.4----
Batters Faced163----
K%20.8%13.8% to 29.7%+/- 8.0%
BB%6.9%3.5% to 10.5%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%21.6%15.5% to 27.9%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.200.30 to 1.71+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.2970.228 to 0.334+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed7.2%2.3% to 9.9%+/- 3.8%
ERA3.500.94 to 4.99+/- 2.03
FIP3.632.64 to 5.18+/- 1.27
WHIP1.2850.889 to 1.537+/- 0.324
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

345 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%17.7%
BB%6.8%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

546 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%18.1%
BB%4.6%
Barrel4.6%