Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Smith, Cade

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
29.3% K%
Range
26.2% to 43.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.33
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p503.11
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.71 2.37 3.11 3.85 4.51
FIP
1.36 1.95 2.61 3.26 3.85
K%
27.8% 30.6% 33.8% 37.0% 39.9%
BB%
3.8% 5.0% 6.4% 7.7% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.7%
96 +32 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
46
Fastball velo96.6
83
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
37
K%34.6%
98
Whiff%32.6%
95
xwOBA allowed0.238
97 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+110
96
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 61%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Smith, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2592026-05-19: 0.2592026-05-21: 0.2582026-05-23: 0.2462026-05-24: 0.2462026-05-25: 0.2442026-05-26: 0.2442026-05-28: 0.2432026-05-29: 0.2392026-05-30: 0.2392026-05-31: 0.2382026-06-01: 0.238 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 60.9%Split-Finger: 26.3%Sweeper: 12.8% MIX FF 61%FS 26%ST 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFFS: HB -0.2, IVB 3.5FSST: HB -0.8, IVB 2.9ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 82.5% 278 112 qualified
SL 17.5% 59 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 70%, Split-Finger 22%, Sweeper 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.75
K% Δ+0.053
Sample31.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings43.2----
Batters Faced175----
K%29.3%26.2% to 43.9%+/- 8.8%
BB%7.7%4.1% to 11.4%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%27.5%24.2% to 36.2%+/- 6.0%
HR/90.980.17 to 1.40+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.2910.239 to 0.330+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed7.2%3.1% to 10.4%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.451.51 to 5.29+/- 1.89
FIP3.421.14 to 4.51+/- 1.69
WHIP1.1630.845 to 1.554+/- 0.355
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

325 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%35.8%
BB%7.0%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

357 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%30.4%
BB%5.6%
Barrel6.0%