Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Smith, Cade

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
29.3% K%
Range
26.2% to 43.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
73
Arsenal3 metrics
83
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.33
ERA current pace2.36
ERA rolling p502.81
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.46 2.10 2.81 3.53 4.16
FIP
1.64 2.21 2.84 3.47 4.04
K%
28.7% 30.9% 33.3% 35.7% 37.9%
BB%
5.7% 6.7% 7.7% 8.7% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
87
ERA2.36
92
BB%8.1%
60
K%33.2%
97
xwOBA allowed0.275
87
Barrel allowed9.0%
28 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
90
Hard-hit allowed43.6%
17
Whiff%31.5%
96
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+109
91
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Slider Stuff+104
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Smith, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.275 2026-08-25: 0.2762026-08-26: 0.2762026-08-27: 0.2762026-08-28: 0.2762026-08-29: 0.2762026-08-30: 0.2762026-08-31: 0.2742026-09-01: 0.2742026-09-02: 0.2752026-09-03: 0.2752026-09-04: 0.2752026-09-05: 0.275 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 63.7%Split-Finger: 24.7%Sweeper: 11.7% FF64% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 64%FS 25%ST 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 64% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.4 mphFF97 mphSplit-Finger: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.9 mphFS87 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.5 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 82.9% 423 109 qualified
SL 17.1% 87 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 70%, Split-Finger 22%, Sweeper 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.09
K% Δ+0.039
Sample66.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings42.9----
Batters Faced174----
K%29.3%26.2% to 43.9%+/- 8.8%
BB%7.7%4.1% to 11.4%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%27.5%24.2% to 36.2%+/- 6.0%
HR/90.980.17 to 1.40+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.2910.240 to 0.330+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed7.2%3.1% to 10.4%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.451.51 to 5.29+/- 1.89
FIP3.421.15 to 4.51+/- 1.68
WHIP1.1630.845 to 1.554+/- 0.355
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

325 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%35.8%
BB%7.0%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

357 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%30.4%
BB%5.6%
Barrel6.0%