Smith, Cade
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.33 |
| ERA current pace | 2.70 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.11 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 82.5% | 278 | 112 | qualified |
| SL | 17.5% | 59 | 103 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.75 |
| K% Δ | +0.053 |
| Sample | 31.7 IP |
positive regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 43.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 175 | -- | -- |
| K% | 29.3% | 26.2% to 43.9% | +/- 8.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 4.1% to 11.4% | +/- 3.6% |
| Whiff% | 27.5% | 24.2% to 36.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 0.98 | 0.17 to 1.40 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.291 | 0.239 to 0.330 | +/- 0.046 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.2% | 3.1% to 10.4% | +/- 3.6% |
| ERA | 3.45 | 1.51 to 5.29 | +/- 1.89 |
| FIP | 3.42 | 1.14 to 4.51 | +/- 1.69 |
| WHIP | 1.163 | 0.845 to 1.554 | +/- 0.355 |
325 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 35.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 5.9% |
357 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.248 |
| K% | 30.4% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |