Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Detmers, Reid

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.1% K%
Range
21.8% to 35.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
68
Arsenal6 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.44
ERA rolling p503.74
Observed weight73%
ERA
1.70 2.67 3.74 4.82 5.78
FIP
2.42 2.86 3.35 3.84 4.29
K%
25.4% 26.6% 27.9% 29.2% 30.4%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.7% 8.4% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
87
ERA3.44
69
BB%7.1%
76 +25 vs proj
K%27.8%
85
xwOBA allowed0.280
84 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
50
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
51
Whiff%25.5%
70
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+106
85
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+106
95
Sinker Stuff+86
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Detmers, Reid · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.280 2026-08-23: 0.2832026-08-24: 0.2832026-08-25: 0.2842026-08-26: 0.2842026-08-27: 0.2842026-08-28: 0.2842026-08-29: 0.2842026-08-30: 0.2842026-08-31: 0.2842026-09-01: 0.2842026-09-02: 0.2842026-09-03: 0.280 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Detmers, Reid · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.2%Slider: 32.9%Curveball: 11.0%Changeup: 9.6%Sinker: 1.2%Pitch Out: 0.0% FF45% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 45%SL 33%CU 11%CH 10%SI 1%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSlider: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 72.3 mphCU72 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 83.8 mphCH84 mphSinker: 1% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 87.3 mphPO87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.7% 656 104 qualified
SL 32.7% 491 106 qualified
CH 11.5% 173 103 limited sample
CB 10.2% 153 106 limited sample
SI 1.9% 29 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slider 31%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.92
K% Δ-0.002
Sample164.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings46.6----
Batters Faced205----
K%28.1%21.8% to 35.6%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.8%5.5% to 12.5%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%27.8%23.2% to 33.6%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.280.69 to 2.23+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3060.267 to 0.371+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 13.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.362.34 to 7.56+/- 2.61
FIP3.652.46 to 4.85+/- 1.19
WHIP1.3371.068 to 1.833+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

518 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%25.8%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1576 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%26.7%
BB%8.7%
Barrel10.0%