Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Detmers, Reid

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
28.1% K%
Range
21.8% to 35.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace4.57
ERA rolling p504.57
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.72 3.60 4.57 5.55 6.43
FIP
2.53 2.94 3.38 3.83 4.23
K%
24.7% 26.4% 28.2% 30.1% 31.8%
BB%
6.8% 7.7% 8.7% 9.7% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
58
Barrel allowed7.5%
53
Fastball velo94.0
45
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
62
K%28.1%
84
Whiff%25.9%
70
xwOBA allowed0.272
82 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Detmers, Reid · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2862026-05-19: 0.2862026-05-21: 0.2872026-05-23: 0.2872026-05-24: 0.2872026-05-25: 0.2722026-05-26: 0.2722026-05-28: 0.2722026-05-29: 0.2712026-05-30: 0.2712026-05-31: 0.2712026-06-01: 0.272 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Detmers, Reid · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Slider: 31.0%Changeup: 11.9%Curveball: 10.5%Sinker: 2.6%Pitch Out: 0.1% MIX FF 44%SL 31%CH 12%CU 10%SI 3%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Detmers, Reid · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB 0.1, IVB 3.4SLCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.4CHCU: HB 0.5, IVB 5.6CUSI: HB 0.5, IVB 1.5SIPO: HB -1.1, IVB 1.8PO horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.2% 454 102 qualified
SL 31.2% 328 108 qualified
CH 12.6% 132 103 limited sample
CB 10.2% 107 105 limited sample
SI 2.8% 29 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Slider 31%, Curveball 21%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.21
K% Δ+0.001
Sample70.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings46.6----
Batters Faced205----
K%28.1%21.8% to 35.6%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.8%5.5% to 12.5%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%27.8%23.2% to 33.6%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.280.69 to 2.23+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3060.267 to 0.371+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.4%5.1% to 13.5%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.362.34 to 7.56+/- 2.61
FIP3.652.46 to 4.85+/- 1.19
WHIP1.3371.068 to 1.833+/- 0.382
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

518 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%25.8%
BB%8.5%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1576 career BF

xwOBA0.308
K%26.7%
BB%8.7%
Barrel10.0%