Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Pérez, Cionel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.3% K%
Range
15.1% to 29.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal5 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace5.75
ERA rolling p504.71
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.67 3.64 4.71 5.78 6.75
FIP
3.19 3.77 4.42 5.07 5.66
K%
17.3% 19.5% 21.9% 24.4% 26.5%
BB%
7.3% 8.8% 10.5% 12.3% 13.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
23
ERA5.75
14
BB%9.5%
38
K%22.0%
46
xwOBA allowed0.366
8 -57 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.2%
4 -80 vs proj
Fastball velo96.7
82
Hard-hit allowed50.9%
1
Whiff%21.9%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+104
75
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+100
35
Slider Stuff+104
61
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Cionel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.366 2026-07-07: 0.3812026-07-08: 0.3712026-07-09: 0.3642026-07-10: 0.3642026-07-11: 0.3642026-07-12: 0.3662026-07-13: 0.3662026-07-14: 0.3662026-07-15: 0.3662026-07-16: 0.3662026-07-17: 0.3662026-07-18: 0.366 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Cionel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Cionel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.2%Slurve: 29.7%Curveball: 21.0%4-Seam Fastball: 19.1% SI30% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 30%SV 30%CU 21%FF 19% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Cionel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSlurve: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.7 mphSV86 mphCurveball: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.5 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 28.6% 106 104 limited sample
SI 27.6% 102 100 limited sample
SL 23.2% 86 104 limited sample
FB 20.5% 76 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.253 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Slider 23%, Slurve 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.57
K% Δ-0.004
Sample38.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.5----
Batters Faced164----
K%22.3%15.1% to 29.6%+/- 7.3%
BB%10.2%5.8% to 16.0%+/- 5.1%
Whiff%23.1%17.5% to 28.6%+/- 5.5%
HR/90.790.00 to 1.48+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3010.215 to 0.356+/- 0.070
Barrel% Allowed5.2%1.5% to 8.8%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.181.45 to 7.13+/- 2.84
FIP3.851.91 to 5.35+/- 1.72
WHIP1.3191.058 to 1.871+/- 0.406
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

461 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%19.1%
BB%11.1%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHH

684 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%17.7%
BB%11.4%
Barrel3.8%