Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Pérez, Cionel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.3% K%
Range
15.1% to 29.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal5 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace4.76
ERA rolling p504.34
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.33 3.28 4.34 5.40 6.36
FIP
2.94 3.52 4.16 4.80 5.38
K%
18.4% 20.5% 22.7% 25.0% 27.0%
BB%
7.3% 8.7% 10.3% 11.9% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
38
ERA4.76
32
BB%9.2%
48
K%23.7%
63
xwOBA allowed0.346
17 -50 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.6%
5 -78 vs proj
Fastball velo96.5
82
Hard-hit allowed49.3%
2
Whiff%22.5%
50
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Curveball Stuff+104
81
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Sinker Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pérez, Cionel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.346 2026-10-04: 0.3462026-10-05: 0.3462026-10-06: 0.3462026-10-07: 0.3462026-10-08: 0.3462026-10-09: 0.3462026-10-10: 0.3462026-10-11: 0.3462026-10-12: 0.3462026-10-13: 0.3462026-10-14: 0.3462026-10-15: 0.346 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pérez, Cionel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Cionel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slurve: 32.7%Sinker: 29.6%4-Seam Fastball: 20.9%Curveball: 16.8% SV33% · 86 mphprimary pitch SV 33%SI 30%FF 21%CU 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pérez, Cionel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slurve: 33% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 85.6 mphSV86 mphSinker: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.4 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 85.5 mphCU86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.2% 131 102 limited sample
SL 25.1% 109 101 limited sample
CB 24.4% 106 104 limited sample
FB 20.3% 88 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.253 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Slider 23%, Slurve 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.58
K% Δ+0.012
Sample47.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.8----
Batters Faced170----
K%22.3%15.1% to 29.6%+/- 7.3%
BB%10.2%5.8% to 16.0%+/- 5.1%
Whiff%23.1%17.5% to 28.6%+/- 5.5%
HR/90.820.00 to 1.48+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3010.215 to 0.356+/- 0.070
Barrel% Allowed5.2%1.5% to 8.8%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.181.45 to 7.13+/- 2.84
FIP3.881.91 to 5.35+/- 1.72
WHIP1.3171.058 to 1.871+/- 0.406
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

461 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%19.1%
BB%11.1%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHH

684 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%17.7%
BB%11.4%
Barrel3.8%