Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Matsui, Yuki

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
19.0% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal4 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
76
ERA2.13
94
BB%14.1%
7
K%26.4%
79
xwOBA allowed0.276
86
Barrel allowed8.8%
29
Fastball velo91.8
13
Hard-hit allowed28.8%
97
Whiff%32.1%
97
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-01
Fastball Stuff+104
59
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Sinker Stuff+90
4
Slider Stuff+103
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matsui, Yuki · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.276 2026-08-21: 0.2822026-08-22: 0.2822026-08-23: 0.2822026-08-24: 0.2822026-08-25: 0.2822026-08-26: 0.2822026-08-27: 0.2782026-08-28: 0.2782026-08-29: 0.2782026-08-30: 0.2772026-08-31: 0.2762026-09-01: 0.276 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matsui, Yuki · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matsui, Yuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.3%Slider: 30.5%Split-Finger: 26.8%Sweeper: 3.5%Sinker: 2.9% FF36% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SL 31%FS 27%ST 3%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matsui, Yuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 91.9 mphFF92 mphSlider: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphSplit-Finger: 27% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.4 mphFS83 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.0 mphSI91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.3% 170 104 limited sample
SL 45.9% 155 103 limited sample
SI 3.8% 13 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Split-Finger 32%, Slider 16%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample52.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.7----
Batters Faced173----
K%23.5%19.0% to 32.7%+/- 6.8%
BB%10.7%6.7% to 15.6%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%27.2%21.9% to 34.3%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.230.59 to 2.22+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3140.247 to 0.363+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed7.7%3.6% to 11.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.082.23 to 6.29+/- 2.03
FIP4.192.50 to 5.26+/- 1.38
WHIP1.3320.989 to 1.682+/- 0.346
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

221 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%24.4%
BB%10.3%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

331 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%22.0%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.5%