Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Senga, Kodai

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
18.6% to 29.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace7.36
ERA rolling p505.78
Observed weight53%
ERA
4.66 5.19 5.78 6.37 6.89
FIP
4.00 4.48 5.02 5.56 6.04
K%
21.3% 22.8% 24.4% 26.1% 27.6%
BB%
10.3% 11.2% 12.2% 13.3% 14.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.60
11
ERA7.36
1
BB%14.3%
6 -26 vs proj
K%25.3%
72
xwOBA allowed0.342
22 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.4%
3 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed39.8%
41
Whiff%25.7%
72
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+100
30
Cutter Stuff+100
36
Sinker Stuff+92
8
Slider Stuff+101
43
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senga, Kodai · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-08-25: 0.3412026-08-26: 0.3412026-08-27: 0.3412026-08-28: 0.3412026-08-29: 0.3412026-08-30: 0.3452026-08-31: 0.3452026-09-01: 0.3442026-09-02: 0.3442026-09-03: 0.3442026-09-04: 0.3442026-09-05: 0.342 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senga, Kodai · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.2%Forkball: 24.0%Cutter: 14.4%Sweeper: 9.3%Slider: 7.0%Sinker: 3.7% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%FO 24%FC 14%ST 9%SL 7%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senga, Kodai · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.3 mphFF96 mphForkball: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.2 mphFO83 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 81.5 mphST81 mphSlider: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphSinker: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.8 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 75″ drop, 66.4 mphCU66 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 59.0% 249 102 qualified
FC 21.8% 92 100 limited sample
SL 13.5% 57 101 limited sample
SI 5.5% 23 92 limited sample
CB 0.2% 1 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Forkball 28%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.40
K% Δ+0.012
Sample59.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.8----
Batters Faced591----
K%24.1%18.6% to 29.6%+/- 5.5%
BB%10.5%7.9% to 13.7%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.2%21.0% to 29.4%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.210.56 to 1.83+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3200.259 to 0.329+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.0% to 11.3%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.962.16 to 5.31+/- 1.58
FIP4.293.09 to 5.97+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3741.063 to 1.596+/- 0.267
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

641 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%21.4%
BB%13.0%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

631 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%22.2%
BB%8.6%
Barrel7.5%