Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Slider 43%, Split-Finger 3%.
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026
Leasure, Jordan
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team CWS
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 28
Status IL-60
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.58 |
| ERA current pace | 6.11 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.26 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
ERA
2.67
3.42
4.26
5.10
5.85
FIP
3.51
4.03
4.62
5.20
5.72
K%
19.8%
22.1%
24.8%
27.5%
29.8%
BB%
6.9%
8.4%
10.0%
11.7%
13.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.2%
22
Barrel allowed23.7%
0
-39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
73
Hard-hit allowed45.8%
13
K%22.5%
52
-24 vs proj
Whiff%24.9%
64
xwOBA allowed0.406
1
-63 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
51%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 53.5% | 147 | 105 | limited sample |
| SL | 42.5% | 117 | 100 | limited sample |
| SI | 4.0% | 11 | 109 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +2.15 |
| K% Δ | -0.038 |
| Sample | 21.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 63.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 278 | -- | -- |
| K% | 26.2% | 20.9% to 34.0% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 10.1% | 6.2% to 14.1% | +/- 4.0% |
| Whiff% | 26.1% | 22.6% to 32.7% | +/- 5.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.24 | 0.78 to 2.33 | +/- 0.78 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.298 | 0.235 to 0.344 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 4.1% to 12.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| ERA | 3.96 | 2.09 to 6.18 | +/- 2.04 |
| FIP | 3.86 | 2.67 to 5.51 | +/- 1.42 |
| WHIP | 1.246 | 1.019 to 1.648 | +/- 0.314 |
vs LHH
186 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.281 |
| K% | 24.1% |
| BB% | 12.3% |
| Barrel | 9.8% |
vs RHH
259 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 25.0% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 9.5% |