Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Alvarez, Andrew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
14.2% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.47
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.58 3.20 3.90 4.59 5.21
FIP
2.62 3.09 3.61 4.13 4.60
K%
18.5% 19.9% 21.4% 22.9% 24.2%
BB%
8.3% 9.1% 10.0% 10.9% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA3.47
68
BB%10.7%
30 -17 vs proj
K%22.4%
52
xwOBA allowed0.321
39 +27 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
80 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
16
Hard-hit allowed40.9%
33
Whiff%23.7%
58 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Curveball Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Fastball Stuff+98
20
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+100
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarez, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-08-25: 0.3242026-08-26: 0.3242026-08-27: 0.3292026-08-28: 0.3292026-08-29: 0.3292026-08-30: 0.3292026-08-31: 0.3212026-09-01: 0.3212026-09-02: 0.3212026-09-03: 0.3212026-09-04: 0.3212026-09-05: 0.321 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarez, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 30.8%4-Seam Fastball: 27.9%Slider: 21.4%Sinker: 15.0%Changeup: 4.9% CU31% · 83 mphprimary pitch CU 31%FF 28%SL 21%SI 15%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarez, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Curveball: 31% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 82.9 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.1 mphSL84 mphSinker: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.8 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 31.6% 230 104 qualified
FB 26.5% 193 98 limited sample
SL 20.8% 151 100 limited sample
SI 14.4% 105 102 limited sample
CH 6.6% 48 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 34%, Slider 29%, Curveball 27%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.04
K% Δ+0.017
Sample89.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings64.4----
Batters Faced271----
K%20.8%14.2% to 26.2%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.2%6.0% to 11.9%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%20.9%14.1% to 25.9%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.350.14 to 1.89+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.3530.230 to 0.359+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed8.1%1.9% to 9.0%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.511.80 to 5.43+/- 1.81
FIP4.343.00 to 5.71+/- 1.36
WHIP1.3960.917 to 1.732+/- 0.407
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

15 career BF

xwOBA0.191
K%16.6%
BB%6.5%
Barrel2.3%
vs RHH

83 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%14.9%
BB%7.6%
Barrel2.6%