Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Drohan, Shane

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
5.3% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.04
ERA current pace2.63
ERA rolling p502.88
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.37 2.09 2.88 3.68 4.40
FIP
1.87 2.77 3.76 4.76 5.66
K%
15.1% 17.9% 21.1% 24.2% 27.0%
BB%
5.3% 6.6% 8.1% 9.7% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.1%
60 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
34
Fastball velo94.9
62
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
52
K%25.7%
73 +39 vs proj
Whiff%24.5%
62 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.276
81
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Drohan, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.2652026-05-21: 0.2602026-05-23: 0.2642026-05-24: 0.2642026-05-25: 0.2622026-05-26: 0.2622026-05-28: 0.2602026-05-29: 0.2602026-05-30: 0.2602026-05-31: 0.2602026-06-01: 0.2602026-06-02: 0.276 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Drohan, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Drohan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.0%Slider: 17.8%Cutter: 17.3%Sinker: 15.6%Curveball: 11.8%Changeup: 6.6% MIX FF 31%SL 18%FC 17%SI 16%CU 12%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Drohan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.3FFSL: HB -0.1, IVB 3.2SLFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.7FCSI: HB -0.1, IVB 1.8SICU: HB 0.8, IVB 4.4CUCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.9CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.4% 143 103 limited sample
SL 18.5% 84 109 limited sample
FC 16.9% 77 107 limited sample
SI 16.5% 75 107 limited sample
CB 11.6% 53 104 limited sample
CH 5.1% 23 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.55
K% Δ+0.055
Sample35.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.3----
Batters Faced250----
K%20.2%5.3% to 23.8%+/- 9.2%
BB%9.7%1.8% to 10.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%22.5%8.1% to 29.9%+/- 10.9%
HR/91.420.05 to 1.58+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.2780.055 to 0.306+/- 0.126
Barrel% Allowed8.1%0.6% to 8.4%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.180.28 to 4.45+/- 2.08
FIP4.341.45 to 6.67+/- 2.61
WHIP1.2070.372 to 1.441+/- 0.534
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

5 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%5.2%
BB%2.3%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

8 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%4.7%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%