Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Drohan, Shane

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
5.4% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal7 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.04
ERA current pace4.19
ERA rolling p503.84
Observed weight70%
ERA
2.26 3.01 3.84 4.67 5.42
FIP
1.90 2.84 3.88 4.92 5.86
K%
18.8% 20.4% 22.1% 23.8% 25.3%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.3% 9.2% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
43
ERA4.19
46
BB%8.4%
56 +15 vs proj
K%23.8%
63 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
65 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.6%
32
Fastball velo94.9
56
Hard-hit allowed39.0%
46
Whiff%24.1%
60
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+103
60
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+103
60
Changeup Stuff+86
2
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Cutter Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Drohan, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-10-04: 0.3012026-10-05: 0.3012026-10-06: 0.3012026-10-07: 0.3012026-10-08: 0.3012026-10-09: 0.3012026-10-10: 0.3012026-10-11: 0.3012026-10-12: 0.3012026-10-13: 0.3012026-10-14: 0.3012026-10-15: 0.301 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Drohan, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Drohan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.0%Slider: 21.4%Sinker: 21.3%Curveball: 12.9%Cutter: 11.9%Changeup: 5.4% FF27% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 27%SL 21%SI 21%CU 13%FC 12%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Drohan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphSinker: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.1% 388 103 qualified
SL 21.5% 308 103 qualified
SI 20.6% 296 104 qualified
CB 13.1% 188 103 limited sample
FC 12.9% 185 102 limited sample
CH 4.8% 69 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.01
K% Δ+0.036
Sample126.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.2----
Batters Faced252----
K%20.2%5.4% to 23.8%+/- 9.2%
BB%9.7%1.8% to 10.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%22.4%8.1% to 29.9%+/- 10.9%
HR/91.420.05 to 1.58+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.2780.055 to 0.306+/- 0.126
Barrel% Allowed8.1%0.6% to 8.4%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.180.28 to 4.44+/- 2.08
FIP4.341.45 to 6.67+/- 2.61
WHIP1.2070.372 to 1.440+/- 0.534
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

5 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%5.2%
BB%2.3%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

8 career BF

xwOBA0.003
K%4.7%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%