Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Junk, Janson

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.6% K%
Range
13.1% to 23.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace4.57
ERA rolling p504.58
Observed weight56%
ERA
3.24 3.87 4.58 5.28 5.91
FIP
2.49 3.27 4.14 5.00 5.78
K%
14.7% 16.0% 17.5% 18.9% 20.2%
BB%
4.0% 4.7% 5.5% 6.4% 7.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
27
ERA4.57
34
BB%6.6%
82 -18 vs proj
K%16.7%
13
xwOBA allowed0.309
55 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
57 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
46
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
35
Whiff%14.4%
2
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+108
92
Slider Stuff+108
90
Changeup Stuff+106
77
Curveball Stuff+104
85
Sinker Stuff+108
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Junk, Janson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.309 2026-07-07: 0.3102026-07-08: 0.3102026-07-09: 0.3102026-07-10: 0.3102026-07-11: 0.3092026-07-12: 0.3092026-07-13: 0.3092026-07-14: 0.3092026-07-15: 0.3092026-07-16: 0.3092026-07-17: 0.3092026-07-18: 0.309 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Junk, Janson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 14%14%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junk, Janson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.3%Slider: 22.6%Changeup: 19.5%Sweeper: 13.5%Curveball: 7.3%Sinker: 2.9% FF34% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 34%SL 23%CH 19%ST 13%CU 7%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junk, Janson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSlider: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.5 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 80.2 mphST80 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 37.0% 353 108 qualified
FB 33.2% 317 108 qualified
CH 19.8% 189 106 limited sample
CB 7.3% 70 104 limited sample
SI 2.6% 25 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.291 vs 0.267 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Slider 28%, Sweeper 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.04
K% Δ-0.019
Sample68.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.7----
Batters Faced280----
K%18.6%13.1% to 23.5%+/- 5.2%
BB%4.3%1.7% to 7.0%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%17.5%13.7% to 22.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.340.34 to 2.15+/- 0.91
xwOBA Against0.3340.263 to 0.391+/- 0.064
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.7% to 11.4%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.612.50 to 6.24+/- 1.87
FIP4.182.25 to 6.86+/- 2.31
WHIP1.2940.942 to 1.512+/- 0.285
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

357 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%13.7%
BB%3.4%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

327 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%16.5%
BB%2.5%
Barrel7.3%