Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Hancock, Emerson

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.2% K%
Range
13.9% to 23.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal7 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
76
ERA3.37
71
BB%5.4%
93
K%22.1%
49
xwOBA allowed0.308
55
Barrel allowed8.7%
31
Fastball velo95.2
62
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
25
Whiff%21.0%
35
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+109
94
Mithrandir Stuff+106
88
Sinker Stuff+111
99
Slider Stuff+96
16
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Curveball Stuff+97
4
Cutter Stuff+97
14
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hancock, Emerson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-08-22: 0.3082026-08-23: 0.3082026-08-24: 0.3082026-08-25: 0.3042026-08-26: 0.3042026-08-27: 0.3042026-08-28: 0.3042026-08-29: 0.3042026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.3082026-09-02: 0.308 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hancock, Emerson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hancock, Emerson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.0%Sinker: 23.3%Sweeper: 16.3%Cutter: 11.9%Changeup: 5.1%Curveball: 4.3% FF39% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SI 23%ST 16%FC 12%CH 5%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hancock, Emerson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSinker: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 77.3 mphST77 mphCutter: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.9 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 76.1 mphCU76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.0% 555 109 qualified
SI 23.1% 337 111 qualified
SL 18.8% 275 96 qualified
FC 11.6% 169 97 limited sample
CH 5.3% 78 99 limited sample
CB 3.2% 47 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.323 vs 0.293 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample141.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.5----
Batters Faced303----
K%18.2%13.9% to 23.3%+/- 4.7%
BB%7.5%5.4% to 10.1%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%19.8%16.0% to 24.1%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.550.85 to 2.16+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3400.281 to 0.378+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.4% to 10.5%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.552.77 to 5.93+/- 1.58
FIP4.693.15 to 5.48+/- 1.17
WHIP1.3301.072 to 1.598+/- 0.263
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

380 career BF

xwOBA0.323
K%14.6%
BB%8.6%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

385 career BF

xwOBA0.293
K%15.5%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.1%