Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Cantillo, Joey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
20.4% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace3.73
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.68 3.22 3.82 4.42 4.96
FIP
3.46 3.69 3.94 4.20 4.42
K%
22.6% 23.6% 24.7% 25.8% 26.8%
BB%
9.4% 10.1% 10.8% 11.6% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
28
ERA3.73
58
BB%11.6%
21 -19 vs proj
K%25.0%
69
xwOBA allowed0.309
55
Barrel allowed7.5%
50
Fastball velo92.1
16
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
47
Whiff%29.0%
90 +26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Changeup Stuff+99
26
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+98
17
Cutter Stuff+98
15
Slider Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cantillo, Joey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.309 2026-08-22: 0.3042026-08-23: 0.3042026-08-24: 0.3042026-08-25: 0.3052026-08-26: 0.3052026-08-27: 0.3082026-08-28: 0.3082026-08-29: 0.3082026-08-30: 0.3082026-08-31: 0.3082026-09-01: 0.3092026-09-02: 0.309 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cantillo, Joey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cantillo, Joey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.1%Curveball: 30.1%Changeup: 25.4%Cutter: 6.8%Slider: 4.7% FF33% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 33%CU 30%CH 25%FC 7%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cantillo, Joey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 80.9 mphCH81 mphCutter: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.0 mphFC87 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 82.8 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.6% 600 98 qualified
CB 27.5% 476 102 qualified
CH 25.7% 446 99 qualified
SL 6.2% 108 100 limited sample
FC 6.0% 104 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 31%, Curveball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.21
K% Δ+0.005
Sample137.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.8----
Batters Faced296----
K%24.5%20.4% to 29.7%+/- 4.7%
BB%9.8%7.8% to 13.0%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%24.7%22.1% to 31.5%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.310.87 to 1.95+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3120.268 to 0.327+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.7%5.5% to 10.4%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.932.56 to 5.55+/- 1.49
FIP3.973.24 to 4.50+/- 0.63
WHIP1.3121.046 to 1.604+/- 0.279
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

170 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%22.8%
BB%10.8%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

431 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%23.1%
BB%9.2%
Barrel7.2%