Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 31%, Curveball 19%.
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026
Cantillo, Joey
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.05 |
| ERA current pace | 3.57 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.80 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
ERA
2.74
3.24
3.80
4.36
4.86
FIP
3.67
3.88
4.12
4.35
4.57
K%
20.4%
21.7%
23.2%
24.7%
26.0%
BB%
8.7%
9.6%
10.5%
11.5%
12.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.0%
15
-19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
58
Fastball velo91.8
16
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
57
K%22.4%
51
Whiff%26.6%
74
xwOBA allowed0.319
44
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+96
16
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
42%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 42.4% | 427 | 96 | qualified |
| CH | 29.5% | 297 | 99 | qualified |
| CB | 18.1% | 182 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 9.7% | 98 | 100 | limited sample |
| FC | 0.3% | 3 | 76 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.36 |
| K% Δ | -0.021 |
| Sample | 61.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 69.0 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 297 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.5% | 20.4% to 29.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 9.8% | 7.8% to 13.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| Whiff% | 24.7% | 22.1% to 31.5% | +/- 4.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.31 | 0.87 to 1.95 | +/- 0.54 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.312 | 0.268 to 0.327 | +/- 0.029 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.7% | 5.5% to 10.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 3.93 | 2.56 to 5.55 | +/- 1.49 |
| FIP | 3.97 | 3.24 to 4.50 | +/- 0.63 |
| WHIP | 1.312 | 1.045 to 1.604 | +/- 0.279 |
vs LHH
170 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 22.8% |
| BB% | 10.8% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHH
431 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.269 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |