Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Cantillo, Joey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
20.4% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal6 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace3.56
ERA rolling p503.73
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.63 3.15 3.73 4.31 4.83
FIP
3.50 3.72 3.96 4.21 4.43
K%
22.3% 23.4% 24.7% 25.9% 27.1%
BB%
8.8% 9.5% 10.3% 11.1% 11.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
38
ERA3.56
61
BB%11.0%
25
K%25.0%
68
xwOBA allowed0.306
58
Barrel allowed7.6%
52
Fastball velo92.0
16
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
66
Whiff%29.4%
90 +27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+100
32
Curveball Stuff+102
50
Fastball Stuff+98
20
Mithrandir Stuff+98
19
Cutter Stuff+97
11
Slider Stuff+100
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cantillo, Joey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-07: 0.3182026-07-08: 0.3182026-07-09: 0.3132026-07-10: 0.3132026-07-11: 0.3132026-07-12: 0.3132026-07-13: 0.3132026-07-14: 0.3072026-07-15: 0.3072026-07-16: 0.3062026-07-17: 0.3062026-07-18: 0.306 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cantillo, Joey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cantillo, Joey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.9%Changeup: 27.4%Curveball: 25.5%Slider: 6.4%Cutter: 4.8% FF36% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 36%CH 27%CU 26%SL 6%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cantillo, Joey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 80.7 mphCH81 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphSlider: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 82.8 mphSL83 mphCutter: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.2 mphFC87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.8% 524 98 qualified
CH 27.1% 375 100 qualified
CB 23.5% 326 102 qualified
SL 7.8% 108 100 limited sample
FC 3.8% 52 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 31%, Curveball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.37
K% Δ+0.005
Sample102.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.9----
Batters Faced301----
K%24.5%20.4% to 29.7%+/- 4.7%
BB%9.8%7.8% to 13.0%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%24.7%22.1% to 31.5%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.310.87 to 1.95+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3120.268 to 0.327+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.7%5.5% to 10.4%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.932.56 to 5.55+/- 1.49
FIP3.973.24 to 4.50+/- 0.63
WHIP1.3121.045 to 1.604+/- 0.279
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

170 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%22.8%
BB%10.8%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

431 career BF

xwOBA0.269
K%23.1%
BB%9.2%
Barrel7.2%