Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Bibee, Tanner

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
19.9% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal7 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace4.36
ERA rolling p504.30
Observed weight78%
ERA
3.35 3.80 4.30 4.80 5.26
FIP
3.95 4.23 4.55 4.86 5.14
K%
17.9% 18.7% 19.6% 20.5% 21.3%
BB%
5.9% 6.4% 6.9% 7.4% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.30
56
ERA4.36
41
BB%6.8%
82
K%18.7%
27 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.320
40
Barrel allowed9.5%
20 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
37
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
37
Whiff%21.7%
43
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Curveball Stuff+103
58
Cutter Stuff+103
72
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Slider Stuff+108
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bibee, Tanner · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.320 2026-10-04: 0.3202026-10-05: 0.3202026-10-06: 0.3202026-10-07: 0.3202026-10-08: 0.3202026-10-09: 0.3202026-10-10: 0.3202026-10-11: 0.3202026-10-12: 0.3202026-10-13: 0.3202026-10-14: 0.3202026-10-15: 0.320 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bibee, Tanner · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bibee, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 24.3%4-Seam Fastball: 23.9%Sinker: 20.5%Changeup: 15.4%Curveball: 11.0%Sweeper: 4.9% FC24% · 86 mphprimary pitch FC 24%FF 24%SI 21%CH 15%CU 11%ST 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bibee, Tanner · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.7 mphFC86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSinker: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 80.9 mphCH81 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 78.1 mphCU78 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.5 mphST82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 24.7% 530 103 qualified
FB 24.5% 527 102 qualified
SI 18.1% 389 102 qualified
CH 17.6% 378 100 qualified
CB 11.1% 239 103 qualified
SL 3.9% 84 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Cutter 21%, Sweeper 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.24
K% Δ-0.035
Sample196.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings152.1----
Batters Faced647----
K%22.2%19.9% to 27.7%+/- 3.9%
BB%6.9%5.5% to 9.4%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%22.7%20.1% to 27.4%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.370.92 to 1.92+/- 0.50
xwOBA Against0.3140.286 to 0.335+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.1% to 10.6%+/- 2.3%
ERA4.123.36 to 5.48+/- 1.06
FIP4.043.30 to 4.66+/- 0.68
WHIP1.2571.115 to 1.477+/- 0.181
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1164 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%21.7%
BB%7.5%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1073 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%22.6%
BB%6.1%
Barrel7.6%