Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Cutter 21%, Sweeper 15%.
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026
Bibee, Tanner
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced starter
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.08 |
| ERA current pace | 4.57 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.37 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
ERA
3.52
3.92
4.37
4.82
5.22
FIP
4.20
4.46
4.74
5.02
5.27
K%
18.5%
19.6%
20.9%
22.2%
23.4%
BB%
5.5%
6.1%
6.7%
7.4%
8.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
82
Barrel allowed12.6%
5
-38 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
44
Hard-hit allowed46.2%
11
K%19.7%
30
-20 vs proj
Whiff%25.3%
67
+19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.334
32
-17 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
6Pitches
2026Season
26%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 25.8% | 294 | 104 | qualified |
| FC | 25.4% | 289 | 104 | qualified |
| CH | 19.4% | 221 | 99 | qualified |
| SI | 17.5% | 199 | 101 | limited sample |
| CB | 10.1% | 115 | 105 | limited sample |
| SL | 1.9% | 22 | 108 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.45 |
| K% Δ | -0.026 |
| Sample | 78.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 147.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 627 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.3% | 19.6% to 28.6% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 5.5% to 9.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| Whiff% | 22.7% | 20.0% to 27.6% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.37 | 0.90 to 1.97 | +/- 0.53 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.313 | 0.279 to 0.341 | +/- 0.031 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 5.9% to 11.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.12 | 3.28 to 5.65 | +/- 1.18 |
| FIP | 4.04 | 3.23 to 4.71 | +/- 0.74 |
| WHIP | 1.257 | 1.094 to 1.501 | +/- 0.204 |
vs LHH
1164 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.299 |
| K% | 21.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |
vs RHH
1073 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 22.6% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 7.6% |