Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Whitlock, Garrett

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.8% K%
Range
20.5% to 36.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
96
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
89
Arsenal4 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.65
ERA current pace2.00
ERA rolling p502.94
Observed weight43%
ERA
1.46 2.16 2.94 3.72 4.43
FIP
1.95 2.43 2.97 3.50 3.99
K%
23.9% 26.2% 28.8% 31.3% 33.6%
BB%
4.1% 5.2% 6.4% 7.6% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.84
98
ERA2.00
96
BB%3.9%
100 +42 vs proj
K%29.4%
91
xwOBA allowed0.248
96 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.3%
96 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
57
Hard-hit allowed35.0%
77
Whiff%28.8%
89
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Sinker Stuff+101
45
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+102
49
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Whitlock, Garrett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.248 2026-08-25: 0.2472026-08-26: 0.2472026-08-27: 0.2472026-08-28: 0.2472026-08-29: 0.2472026-08-30: 0.2482026-08-31: 0.2482026-09-01: 0.2482026-09-02: 0.2482026-09-03: 0.2482026-09-04: 0.2452026-09-05: 0.248 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Whitlock, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Whitlock, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 56.2%Slider: 26.1%Changeup: 17.7% SI56% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 56%SL 26%CH 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Whitlock, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 56% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSlider: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.3 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 53.0% 220 101 qualified
SL 29.9% 124 102 limited sample
CH 17.1% 71 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 47%, Slider 31%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.61
K% Δ+0.017
Sample47.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.2----
Batters Faced166----
K%27.8%20.5% to 36.1%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.3%5.2% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%28.5%23.4% to 34.1%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.070.36 to 1.69+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2900.254 to 0.345+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.5% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.611.56 to 5.70+/- 2.07
FIP3.131.91 to 4.76+/- 1.42
WHIP1.2391.034 to 1.633+/- 0.300
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

639 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%26.1%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

794 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%27.0%
BB%6.8%
Barrel9.0%