Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Whitlock, Garrett

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.8% K%
Range
20.5% to 36.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.65
ERA current pace3.20
ERA rolling p503.53
Observed weight26%
ERA
1.91 2.68 3.53 4.39 5.16
FIP
2.22 2.75 3.34 3.92 4.45
K%
23.0% 25.8% 29.0% 32.1% 35.0%
BB%
5.1% 6.5% 8.0% 9.5% 10.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
72
Barrel allowed7.7%
51
Fastball velo94.6
54
Hard-hit allowed30.8%
92
K%31.0%
93
Whiff%29.0%
86
xwOBA allowed0.307
56 -15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Whitlock, Garrett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.3002026-05-23: 0.3002026-05-24: 0.3002026-05-25: 0.3072026-05-26: 0.3072026-05-28: 0.3072026-05-29: 0.3072026-05-30: 0.3072026-05-31: 0.3072026-06-01: 0.307 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Whitlock, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Whitlock, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 50.2%Slider: 32.2%Changeup: 17.6% MIX SI 50%SL 32%CH 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Whitlock, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.0, IVB 1.2SISL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.3SLCH: HB -0.9, IVB 3.0CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 49.2% 157 99 limited sample
SL 33.2% 106 102 limited sample
CH 17.6% 56 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 47%, Slider 31%, Changeup 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.41
K% Δ+0.032
Sample20.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.5----
Batters Faced167----
K%27.8%20.5% to 36.1%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.3%5.2% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%28.5%23.4% to 34.1%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.070.36 to 1.69+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.2900.254 to 0.345+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.5% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.611.56 to 5.70+/- 2.07
FIP3.131.91 to 4.76+/- 1.42
WHIP1.2391.034 to 1.633+/- 0.300
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

639 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%26.1%
BB%7.7%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

794 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%27.0%
BB%6.8%
Barrel9.0%