Hoffman, Nolan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.62 |
| ERA current pace | 2.70 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.46 |
| Observed weight | 8% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC | 34.1% | 28 | 101 | limited sample |
| FB | 34.1% | 28 | 100 | limited sample |
| SI | 14.6% | 12 | 98 | limited sample |
| SL | 13.4% | 11 | 98 | limited sample |
| CH | 3.7% | 3 | 86 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 28.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 130 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.0% | 1.9% to 24.6% | +/- 11.4% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 1.1% to 13.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| Whiff% | 22.6% | 2.1% to 26.7% | +/- 12.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.17 | 0.00 to 1.49 | +/- 0.75 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.304 | 0.001 to 0.318 | +/- 0.158 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.5% | 0.1% to 8.5% | +/- 4.2% |
| ERA | 4.07 | 1.80 to 8.07 | +/- 3.14 |
| FIP | 4.00 | 0.89 to 5.73 | +/- 2.42 |
| WHIP | 1.352 | 0.474 to 1.797 | +/- 0.661 |
12 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.025 |
| K% | 4.0% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |
9 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.024 |
| K% | 4.2% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 0.1% |