Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 44%, 4-Seam Fastball 26%, Sinker 25%.
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026
Winn, Keaton
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SF
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.59 |
| ERA current pace | 1.85 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.78 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
ERA
1.67
2.67
3.78
4.89
5.89
FIP
2.84
3.28
3.77
4.25
4.69
K%
16.7%
18.8%
21.2%
23.5%
25.7%
BB%
5.5%
6.5%
7.6%
8.7%
9.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
47
-17 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.9%
95
+45 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed27.5%
97
K%21.8%
48
Whiff%24.1%
60
xwOBA allowed0.247
94
+48 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
85
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
51%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 49.1% | 82 | 104 | limited sample |
| SI | 45.5% | 76 | 109 | limited sample |
| SL | 5.4% | 9 | 86 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -3.05 |
| K% Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 26.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 61.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 269 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.8% | 14.9% to 26.8% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 5.1% to 10.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Whiff% | 24.7% | 20.5% to 32.1% | +/- 5.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.27 | 0.79 to 2.18 | +/- 0.70 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.317 | 0.274 to 0.372 | +/- 0.049 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 5.2% to 13.0% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 4.90 | 2.34 to 7.86 | +/- 2.76 |
| FIP | 4.06 | 2.72 to 5.15 | +/- 1.21 |
| WHIP | 1.228 | 0.981 to 1.626 | +/- 0.323 |
vs LHH
217 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.322 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 10.3% |
vs RHH
272 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 9.5% |