Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Ashby, Aaron

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.5% K%
Range
21.6% to 32.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace3.12
ERA rolling p503.21
Observed weight64%
ERA
2.03 2.59 3.21 3.83 4.39
FIP
2.67 2.97 3.30 3.64 3.94
K%
25.7% 27.0% 28.4% 29.9% 31.2%
BB%
8.5% 9.3% 10.2% 11.0% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
65
ERA3.12
80
BB%11.2%
24 -23 vs proj
K%30.1%
93 +20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.261
94 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
88 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo97.6
92
Hard-hit allowed39.0%
46
Whiff%29.2%
91 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Changeup Stuff+94
13
Curveball Stuff+103
61
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+97
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashby, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.261 2026-10-04: 0.2652026-10-05: 0.2632026-10-06: 0.2632026-10-07: 0.2632026-10-08: 0.2642026-10-09: 0.2642026-10-10: 0.2642026-10-11: 0.2642026-10-12: 0.2632026-10-13: 0.2612026-10-14: 0.2612026-10-15: 0.261 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashby, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 52.7%Curveball: 22.0%Changeup: 12.2%Slider: 11.3%4-Seam Fastball: 1.7% SI53% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 53%CU 22%CH 12%SL 11%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 53% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.7 mphSI98 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 83.7 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.9 mphCH92 mphSlider: 11% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 51.6% 471 104 qualified
CB 20.7% 189 103 limited sample
SL 13.4% 122 97 limited sample
CH 11.2% 102 94 limited sample
FB 3.1% 28 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.257 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Curveball 25%, Changeup 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.49
K% Δ+0.046
Sample101.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.1----
Batters Faced292----
K%25.5%21.6% to 32.9%+/- 5.6%
BB%9.2%6.4% to 12.6%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%23.7%21.1% to 29.7%+/- 4.3%
HR/90.940.34 to 1.58+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.2990.268 to 0.333+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed6.3%3.1% to 8.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.611.66 to 4.86+/- 1.60
FIP3.472.64 to 4.37+/- 0.87
WHIP1.2841.059 to 1.623+/- 0.282
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

295 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%26.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel3.3%
vs RHH

805 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%23.6%
BB%8.9%
Barrel4.5%