Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Meyer, Max

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
17.2% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal5 metrics
77
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace2.58
ERA rolling p503.03
Observed weight65%
ERA
1.98 2.48 3.03 3.58 4.07
FIP
2.66 3.15 3.69 4.24 4.73
K%
22.0% 23.2% 24.5% 25.9% 27.1%
BB%
6.6% 7.2% 7.9% 8.5% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
78
ERA2.58
86
BB%8.5%
54 -18 vs proj
K%25.8%
73 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
64 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
38
Fastball velo94.6
52
Hard-hit allowed42.0%
29
Whiff%26.5%
75 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+105
70
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+105
77
Changeup Stuff+105
71
Sinker Stuff+106
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Meyer, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3012026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3022026-07-15: 0.3022026-07-16: 0.3022026-07-17: 0.3022026-07-18: 0.302 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Meyer, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Meyer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 30.0%Slider: 25.9%4-Seam Fastball: 23.7%Changeup: 10.5%Sinker: 10.0% ST30% · 89 mphprimary pitch ST 30%SL 26%FF 24%CH 10%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Meyer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 88.9 mphST89 mphSlider: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 90.2 mphSL90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSinker: 10% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 55.4% 685 105 qualified
FB 23.4% 289 105 qualified
CH 11.0% 136 105 limited sample
SI 10.3% 127 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 35%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Changeup 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.57
K% Δ+0.039
Sample106.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.9----
Batters Faced612----
K%21.9%17.2% to 27.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.2%4.8% to 8.6%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%23.9%20.4% to 27.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.360.93 to 2.33+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3190.264 to 0.330+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.6% to 12.2%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.153.10 to 5.92+/- 1.41
FIP3.983.11 to 5.91+/- 1.40
WHIP1.2721.076 to 1.565+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

299 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%19.4%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

293 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%19.2%
BB%5.3%
Barrel8.4%