Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Crochet, Garrett

Bat-missing starter with frontline strikeout shape

Primary
29.8% K%
Range
26.1% to 38.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
24
ERA6.30
8
BB%8.0%
64
K%24.5%
67
xwOBA allowed0.344
20
Barrel allowed10.9%
9
Fastball velo95.5
67
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
5
Whiff%22.6%
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Changeup Stuff+97
18
Cutter Stuff+105
83
Fastball Stuff+107
81
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+102
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Crochet, Garrett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.344 2026-08-22: 0.3442026-08-23: 0.3442026-08-24: 0.3442026-08-25: 0.3442026-08-26: 0.3442026-08-27: 0.3442026-08-28: 0.3442026-08-29: 0.3442026-08-30: 0.3442026-08-31: 0.3442026-09-01: 0.3442026-09-02: 0.344 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Crochet, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Crochet, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.7%Cutter: 25.2%Sinker: 22.3%Sweeper: 14.8%Changeup: 3.7%Split-Finger: 1.3% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%FC 25%SI 22%ST 15%CH 4%FS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Crochet, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphCutter: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphSinker: 22% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 83.3 mphST83 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.9 mphFS86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.9% 174 107 limited sample
FC 24.9% 128 105 limited sample
SI 22.6% 116 101 limited sample
SL 14.4% 74 102 limited sample
CH 4.3% 22 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.235 vs 0.265 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Cutter 28%, Sinker 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--
Sample35.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.8----
Batters Faced595----
K%29.8%26.1% to 38.4%+/- 6.2%
BB%6.7%3.7% to 8.4%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%28.0%24.1% to 32.5%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.300.79 to 1.87+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.2940.230 to 0.318+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed9.3%6.8% to 12.6%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.291.56 to 4.74+/- 1.59
FIP3.111.98 to 4.52+/- 1.27
WHIP1.1180.909 to 1.408+/- 0.249
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

410 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%30.8%
BB%5.3%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

1457 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%30.6%
BB%5.8%
Barrel9.5%