Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Walker, Josh

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.2% K%
Range
14.0% to 30.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal5 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace2.14
ERA rolling p503.40
Observed weight28%
ERA
1.52 2.41 3.40 4.38 5.27
FIP
1.60 2.46 3.40 4.35 5.20
K%
16.5% 19.4% 22.6% 25.9% 28.8%
BB%
5.6% 7.2% 8.9% 10.7% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
53
ERA2.14
94
BB%8.5%
54
K%24.5%
67
xwOBA allowed0.258
94 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
88 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo92.7
23
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
36
Whiff%20.5%
30 -42 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Changeup Stuff+101
44
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Sinker Stuff+103
56
Slider Stuff+95
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

4 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Walker, Josh · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.258 2026-09-02: 0.2662026-09-03: 0.2602026-09-04: 0.2602026-09-05: 0.258 2026-09-02 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Walker, Josh · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Walker, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 41.4%Sinker: 26.3%4-Seam Fastball: 23.8%Changeup: 8.5% SL41% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 41%SI 26%FF 24%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Walker, Josh · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.9 mphSL83 mphSinker: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 43.3% 110 95 limited sample
SI 26.0% 66 103 limited sample
FB 23.2% 59 105 limited sample
CH 7.5% 19 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Curveball 52%, 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.51
K% Δ+0.003
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.4----
Batters Faced135----
K%24.2%14.0% to 30.4%+/- 8.2%
BB%9.7%4.7% to 13.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%25.7%16.5% to 29.9%+/- 6.7%
HR/91.100.01 to 1.86+/- 0.92
xwOBA Against0.2900.193 to 0.362+/- 0.084
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.8% to 12.7%+/- 4.4%
ERA3.651.77 to 6.65+/- 2.44
FIP3.461.78 to 6.48+/- 2.35
WHIP1.3050.979 to 1.769+/- 0.395
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

60 career BF

xwOBA0.201
K%17.4%
BB%7.4%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

91 career BF

xwOBA0.216
K%16.5%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.1%