Bruihl, Justin
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.76 |
| ERA current pace | 5.11 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.23 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 45.1% | 201 | 103 | qualified |
| SL | 34.5% | 154 | 103 | limited sample |
| CH | 10.5% | 47 | 90 | limited sample |
| FB | 9.4% | 42 | 91 | limited sample |
| FC | 0.4% | 2 | 59 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +1.34 |
| K% Δ | -0.078 |
| Sample | 27.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 30.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 145 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.5% | 14.8% to 29.4% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 4.8% to 12.7% | +/- 3.9% |
| Whiff% | 23.1% | 16.5% to 28.8% | +/- 6.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.19 | 0.47 to 2.15 | +/- 0.84 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.310 | 0.227 to 0.358 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.6% | 2.8% to 10.3% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 3.77 | 1.30 to 7.05 | +/- 2.87 |
| FIP | 3.96 | 2.21 to 6.45 | +/- 2.12 |
| WHIP | 1.388 | 1.107 to 1.867 | +/- 0.380 |
199 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 6.4% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
236 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.253 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |