Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Bruihl, Justin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
14.8% to 29.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace5.11
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.11 3.11 4.23 5.35 6.35
FIP
2.52 3.26 4.08 4.91 5.65
K%
14.1% 16.5% 19.1% 21.7% 24.0%
BB%
6.8% 8.2% 9.7% 11.2% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.6%
18 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.6%
85 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo90.6
6
Hard-hit allowed42.5%
31
K%14.7%
6 -46 vs proj
Whiff%18.0%
13 -37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.354
14 -40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bruihl, Justin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3602026-05-19: 0.3622026-05-21: 0.3612026-05-23: 0.3482026-05-24: 0.3542026-05-25: 0.3542026-05-26: 0.3542026-05-28: 0.3472026-05-29: 0.3472026-05-30: 0.3472026-05-31: 0.3452026-06-01: 0.354 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bruihl, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bruihl, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 44.7%Sweeper: 34.2%Changeup: 10.1%4-Seam Fastball: 9.3%Cutter: 1.8% MIX SI 45%ST 34%CH 10%FF 9%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bruihl, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.1, IVB 2.7SIST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.9STCH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.6CHFF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.7FFFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.2FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.1% 201 103 qualified
SL 34.5% 154 103 limited sample
CH 10.5% 47 90 limited sample
FB 9.4% 42 91 limited sample
FC 0.4% 2 59 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 50%, Sweeper 42%, Cutter 8%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.34
K% Δ-0.078
Sample27.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.8----
Batters Faced145----
K%22.5%14.8% to 29.4%+/- 7.3%
BB%8.7%4.8% to 12.7%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.1%16.5% to 28.8%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.190.47 to 2.15+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.3100.227 to 0.358+/- 0.066
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.8% to 10.3%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.771.30 to 7.05+/- 2.87
FIP3.962.21 to 6.45+/- 2.12
WHIP1.3881.107 to 1.867+/- 0.380
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%19.0%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

236 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%16.7%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.0%