Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Bruihl, Justin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
14.8% to 29.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace3.66
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight48%
ERA
1.68 2.64 3.71 4.78 5.74
FIP
2.25 2.96 3.75 4.54 5.25
K%
14.5% 16.4% 18.6% 20.7% 22.7%
BB%
6.5% 7.6% 8.9% 10.1% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
36
ERA3.66
57
BB%9.1%
43
K%15.5%
9 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
42
Barrel allowed3.9%
93 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo90.4
5
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
61
Whiff%16.7%
7 -45 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Sinker Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+90
3
Fastball Stuff+93
7
Slider Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bruihl, Justin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-07-07: 0.3192026-07-08: 0.3202026-07-09: 0.3162026-07-10: 0.3162026-07-11: 0.3162026-07-12: 0.3152026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3212026-07-15: 0.3212026-07-16: 0.3212026-07-17: 0.3212026-07-18: 0.321 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bruihl, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bruihl, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.3%Sweeper: 36.3%Changeup: 9.8%4-Seam Fastball: 6.5%Cutter: 2.2% SI45% · 90 mphprimary pitch SI 45%ST 36%CH 10%FF 6%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bruihl, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphSweeper: 36% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 77.9 mphST78 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 80.3 mphCH80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphCutter: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.5 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.1% 254 102 qualified
SL 35.3% 199 101 limited sample
CH 10.7% 60 90 limited sample
FB 8.2% 46 93 limited sample
FC 0.7% 4 82 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 50%, Sweeper 42%, Cutter 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.11
K% Δ-0.070
Sample48.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.7----
Batters Faced144----
K%22.5%14.8% to 29.4%+/- 7.3%
BB%8.7%4.8% to 12.7%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.1%16.5% to 28.8%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.190.47 to 2.15+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.3100.227 to 0.358+/- 0.066
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.8% to 10.3%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.771.30 to 7.05+/- 2.87
FIP3.962.21 to 6.45+/- 2.12
WHIP1.3861.107 to 1.867+/- 0.380
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

199 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%19.0%
BB%6.4%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

236 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%16.7%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.0%