Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Cecconi, Slade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.60
ERA current pace5.18
ERA rolling p504.92
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.79 4.32 4.92 5.51 6.05
FIP
3.73 4.09 4.48 4.88 5.23
K%
16.6% 17.9% 19.3% 20.8% 22.0%
BB%
5.4% 6.0% 6.8% 7.5% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
65 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.1%
44
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
72
K%18.1%
20
Whiff%18.0%
13
xwOBA allowed0.337
30
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cecconi, Slade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3562026-05-19: 0.3562026-05-21: 0.3492026-05-23: 0.3492026-05-24: 0.3422026-05-25: 0.3412026-05-26: 0.3412026-05-28: 0.3412026-05-29: 0.3412026-05-30: 0.3412026-05-31: 0.3372026-06-01: 0.337 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cecconi, Slade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.7%Cutter: 25.1%Sinker: 18.0%Curveball: 14.9%Sweeper: 8.0%Changeup: 1.2% MIX FF 33%FC 25%SI 18%CU 15%ST 8%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.3FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.4FCSI: HB 0.2, IVB 1.8SICU: HB 0.3, IVB 5.2CUST: HB -0.4, IVB 3.4STCH: HB -0.7, IVB 3.0CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.2% 317 107 qualified
FC 26.3% 251 98 qualified
SI 16.9% 162 103 limited sample
CB 14.6% 140 96 limited sample
SL 7.8% 75 95 limited sample
CH 1.2% 11 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Slider 18%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ-0.017
Sample64.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.2----
Batters Faced594----
K%19.8%16.2% to 25.8%+/- 4.8%
BB%6.1%3.9% to 7.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%20.3%17.6% to 24.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.451.01 to 2.28+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3240.277 to 0.360+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed9.0%6.3% to 13.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.553.09 to 6.28+/- 1.59
FIP4.323.35 to 5.46+/- 1.05
WHIP1.2631.036 to 1.512+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

506 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.3%
BB%5.7%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

512 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%19.0%
BB%4.4%
Barrel10.0%