Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Cecconi, Slade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal7 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.60
ERA current pace4.54
ERA rolling p504.56
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.39 3.94 4.56 5.18 5.74
FIP
3.60 3.97 4.38 4.79 5.16
K%
16.6% 17.7% 18.8% 20.0% 21.1%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.5% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
33
ERA4.54
37
BB%7.4%
70 -16 vs proj
K%17.8%
17
xwOBA allowed0.329
34
Barrel allowed7.6%
51 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
53
Whiff%18.3%
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Cutter Stuff+98
13
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Changeup Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+98
4
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cecconi, Slade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.329 2026-07-07: 0.3282026-07-08: 0.3282026-07-09: 0.3282026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3292026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3292026-07-15: 0.3292026-07-16: 0.3292026-07-17: 0.3292026-07-18: 0.329 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cecconi, Slade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.4%Cutter: 23.9%Sinker: 20.9%Curveball: 15.1%Slider: 5.3%Sweeper: 5.3% FF27% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 27%FC 24%SI 21%CU 15%SL 5%ST 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphCutter: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mphSinker: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 75.7 mphCU76 mphSlider: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.4 mphSL83 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.8 mphST82 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.4 mphCH82 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.4 mphFS84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.8% 330 106 qualified
FC 27.0% 280 98 qualified
SI 16.8% 174 104 limited sample
CB 15.4% 160 98 limited sample
SL 7.6% 79 98 limited sample
CH 1.4% 15 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Slider 18%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.01
K% Δ-0.020
Sample101.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.9----
Batters Faced597----
K%19.8%16.2% to 25.8%+/- 4.8%
BB%6.1%3.9% to 7.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%20.3%17.6% to 24.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.451.01 to 2.28+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3240.277 to 0.360+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed9.0%6.3% to 13.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.553.09 to 6.28+/- 1.59
FIP4.323.35 to 5.46+/- 1.05
WHIP1.2631.036 to 1.512+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

506 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.3%
BB%5.7%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

512 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%19.0%
BB%4.4%
Barrel10.0%