Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CLE · 2026

Cecconi, Slade

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
16.2% to 25.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CLE Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal7 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.60
ERA current pace4.91
ERA rolling p504.82
Observed weight70%
ERA
3.61 4.18 4.82 5.45 6.03
FIP
3.73 4.11 4.53 4.95 5.33
K%
17.4% 18.4% 19.5% 20.6% 21.5%
BB%
5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.6% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
34
ERA4.91
28
BB%7.5%
70 -18 vs proj
K%18.8%
28
xwOBA allowed0.332
29
Barrel allowed8.5%
32
Fastball velo93.6
35
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
27
Whiff%19.0%
19
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Cutter Stuff+99
25
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+98
8
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+99
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cecconi, Slade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.332 2026-10-04: 0.3332026-10-05: 0.3332026-10-06: 0.3332026-10-07: 0.3332026-10-08: 0.3332026-10-09: 0.3332026-10-10: 0.3332026-10-11: 0.3332026-10-12: 0.3332026-10-13: 0.3332026-10-14: 0.3322026-10-15: 0.332 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cecconi, Slade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.2%Cutter: 25.3%Sinker: 19.8%Curveball: 14.9%Sweeper: 6.3%Slider: 4.4% FF27% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 27%FC 25%SI 20%CU 15%ST 6%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cecconi, Slade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphCutter: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.5 mphFC89 mphSinker: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 76.1 mphCU76 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.0 mphST83 mphSlider: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.4 mphSL83 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 83.1 mphCH83 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.4 mphFS84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.9% 362 107 qualified
FC 27.9% 327 99 qualified
SI 15.9% 186 104 limited sample
CB 14.8% 173 98 limited sample
SL 9.3% 109 99 limited sample
CH 1.3% 15 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Slider 18%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.36
K% Δ-0.009
Sample124.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.0----
Batters Faced615----
K%19.8%16.2% to 25.8%+/- 4.8%
BB%6.1%3.9% to 7.7%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%20.3%17.6% to 24.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.451.01 to 2.28+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3240.277 to 0.360+/- 0.042
Barrel% Allowed9.0%6.3% to 13.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.553.09 to 6.28+/- 1.59
FIP4.323.35 to 5.46+/- 1.05
WHIP1.2631.036 to 1.512+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

506 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.3%
BB%5.7%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

512 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%19.0%
BB%4.4%
Barrel10.0%