Hill, Jaden
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.90 |
| ERA current pace | 2.79 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.56 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 31.6% | 104 | 108 | limited sample |
| FB | 27.7% | 91 | 99 | limited sample |
| CH | 20.7% | 68 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 20.1% | 66 | 104 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.43 |
| K% Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 23.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 141 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.0% | 15.8% to 30.7% | +/- 7.5% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 4.9% to 13.5% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 23.9% | 18.4% to 29.8% | +/- 5.7% |
| HR/9 | 1.14 | 0.26 to 1.81 | +/- 0.77 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.232 to 0.355 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.6% | 2.1% to 9.1% | +/- 3.5% |
| ERA | 4.22 | 1.69 to 6.43 | +/- 2.37 |
| FIP | 3.70 | 2.57 to 5.46 | +/- 1.45 |
| WHIP | 1.354 | 0.956 to 1.735 | +/- 0.389 |
94 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 18.5% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |
102 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 19.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |