Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Sweeper 33%, Cutter 14%.
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026
Perkins, Jack
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.30 |
| ERA current pace | 5.04 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.58 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
ERA
3.49
4.00
4.58
5.15
5.67
FIP
2.82
3.17
3.56
3.95
4.30
K%
19.8%
21.7%
23.8%
25.8%
27.7%
BB%
6.1%
7.1%
8.2%
9.3%
10.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
82
+42 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.5%
86
+50 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
78
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
76
K%25.5%
72
+26 vs proj
Whiff%28.0%
83
xwOBA allowed0.282
78
+39 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
42%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 40.7% | 181 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 31.5% | 140 | 108 | limited sample |
| CH | 18.0% | 80 | 110 | limited sample |
| FC | 7.9% | 35 | 111 | limited sample |
| SI | 2.0% | 9 | 103 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.39 |
| K% Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 31.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 65.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 276 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.6% | 18.0% to 29.2% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 6.9% to 12.9% | +/- 3.0% |
| Whiff% | 29.2% | 23.3% to 33.7% | +/- 5.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.34 | 0.69 to 1.82 | +/- 0.57 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.328 | 0.269 to 0.345 | +/- 0.038 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.8% | 5.8% to 12.1% | +/- 3.1% |
| ERA | 4.65 | 3.12 to 6.11 | +/- 1.49 |
| FIP | 4.40 | 3.21 to 5.24 | +/- 1.02 |
| WHIP | 1.311 | 0.948 to 1.582 | +/- 0.317 |
vs LHH
83 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.248 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 9.4% |
| Barrel | 8.4% |
vs RHH
78 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.243 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 8.6% |