Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Bello, Brayan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.8% K%
Range
16.7% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal7 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace6.06
ERA rolling p505.19
Observed weight57%
ERA
4.18 4.66 5.19 5.73 6.21
FIP
3.91 4.14 4.39 4.64 4.87
K%
16.5% 17.6% 18.9% 20.2% 21.3%
BB%
6.6% 7.3% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
16
ERA6.06
11
BB%7.6%
66
K%17.7%
16
xwOBA allowed0.373
6 -22 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.2%
18 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo94.8
56
Hard-hit allowed43.4%
22
Whiff%23.8%
56 +15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+98
23
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Curveball Stuff+103
71
Cutter Stuff+102
58
Fastball Stuff+91
5
Slider Stuff+102
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bello, Brayan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.373 2026-07-07: 0.3772026-07-08: 0.3772026-07-09: 0.3772026-07-10: 0.3772026-07-11: 0.3772026-07-12: 0.3772026-07-13: 0.3772026-07-14: 0.3732026-07-15: 0.3732026-07-16: 0.3732026-07-17: 0.3732026-07-18: 0.373 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bello, Brayan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 41.4%Changeup: 18.0%Cutter: 16.0%Sweeper: 12.5%Curveball: 6.1%4-Seam Fastball: 6.1% SI41% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 41%CH 18%FC 16%ST 12%CU 6%FF 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 41% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.5 mphCH89 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.7 mphST86 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 83.4 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.8% 421 98 qualified
CH 17.0% 167 100 limited sample
FC 15.8% 155 102 limited sample
SL 12.2% 120 102 limited sample
CB 6.5% 64 103 limited sample
FB 5.8% 57 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.325 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 35%, Sweeper 19%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.61
K% Δ-0.020
Sample70.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings78.1----
Batters Faced342----
K%19.8%16.7% to 25.0%+/- 4.2%
BB%8.2%6.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.9%19.6% to 26.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.310.84 to 1.94+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3360.296 to 0.358+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.8% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
ERA4.453.05 to 5.88+/- 1.42
FIP4.343.47 to 4.83+/- 0.68
WHIP1.3451.120 to 1.599+/- 0.239
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1255 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%16.5%
BB%9.4%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1156 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%20.9%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.4%