Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Bello, Brayan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.7% K%
Range
16.7% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace6.43
ERA rolling p505.33
Observed weight53%
ERA
4.32 4.79 5.33 5.86 6.33
FIP
3.97 4.20 4.45 4.71 4.93
K%
16.1% 17.3% 18.6% 19.9% 21.1%
BB%
6.6% 7.3% 8.1% 8.9% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.6%
66
Barrel allowed9.6%
28 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
56
Hard-hit allowed41.8%
35
K%17.0%
14 -15 vs proj
Whiff%24.3%
62 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.376
8 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bello, Brayan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3862026-05-19: 0.3932026-05-21: 0.3932026-05-23: 0.3932026-05-24: 0.3842026-05-25: 0.3832026-05-26: 0.3862026-05-28: 0.3862026-05-29: 0.3852026-05-30: 0.3852026-05-31: 0.3762026-06-01: 0.376 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bello, Brayan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 42.7%Cutter: 17.5%Changeup: 15.7%Sweeper: 10.9%Curveball: 7.0%4-Seam Fastball: 6.2% MIX SI 43%FC 17%CH 16%ST 11%CU 7%FF 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bello, Brayan · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.0, IVB 2.0SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.8FCCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.5CHST: HB -0.5, IVB 3.4STCU: HB 0.1, IVB 3.9CUFF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.6FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 43.6% 382 97 qualified
FC 16.9% 148 103 limited sample
CH 14.8% 130 100 limited sample
SL 11.5% 101 103 limited sample
CB 7.3% 64 104 limited sample
FB 5.8% 51 89 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.325 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 35%, Sweeper 19%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.98
K% Δ-0.026
Sample61.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.2----
Batters Faced338----
K%19.7%16.7% to 25.0%+/- 4.2%
BB%8.2%6.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%21.9%19.6% to 26.7%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.310.84 to 1.94+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3360.296 to 0.358+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.8% to 10.6%+/- 2.4%
ERA4.453.05 to 5.88+/- 1.42
FIP4.343.47 to 4.83+/- 0.68
WHIP1.3451.120 to 1.599+/- 0.239
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1255 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%16.5%
BB%9.4%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1156 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%20.9%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.4%