Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Teng, Kai-Wei

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
18.4% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason5.28
ERA current pace4.66
ERA rolling p504.92
Observed weight58%
ERA
2.80 3.80 4.92 6.03 7.03
FIP
3.07 3.59 4.17 4.75 5.27
K%
19.7% 21.1% 22.7% 24.2% 25.7%
BB%
7.3% 8.3% 9.3% 10.4% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
47
ERA4.66
34
BB%9.3%
46
K%21.8%
46 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.338
26 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
42 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed39.1%
45
Whiff%25.5%
71
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Slider Stuff+110
96
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Curveball Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+105
72
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Teng, Kai-Wei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.338 2026-08-25: 0.3352026-08-26: 0.3352026-08-27: 0.3342026-08-28: 0.3342026-08-29: 0.3342026-08-30: 0.3372026-08-31: 0.3372026-09-01: 0.3372026-09-02: 0.3382026-09-03: 0.3382026-09-04: 0.3382026-09-05: 0.338 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Teng, Kai-Wei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Teng, Kai-Wei · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 35.3%4-Seam Fastball: 27.5%Sinker: 16.7%Changeup: 9.8%Curveball: 9.1%Slider: 1.7% ST35% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 35%FF 27%SI 17%CH 10%CU 9%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Teng, Kai-Wei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 35% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSinker: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.4 mphCU82 mphSlider: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 36.2% 303 110 qualified
FB 25.7% 215 100 qualified
SI 17.6% 147 105 limited sample
CB 10.9% 91 102 limited sample
CH 9.6% 80 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.23
K% Δ-0.026
Sample74.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.6----
Batters Faced288----
K%24.4%18.4% to 30.2%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.6%6.2% to 14.0%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%24.9%19.7% to 30.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.270.35 to 1.85+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3120.264 to 0.359+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed6.5%3.3% to 9.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.892.38 to 8.28+/- 2.95
FIP3.812.62 to 5.69+/- 1.54
WHIP1.2881.081 to 1.724+/- 0.321
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

96 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%19.8%
BB%10.8%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHH

106 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%21.9%
BB%10.2%
Barrel4.9%