Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 5 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Rodriguez, Grayson

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.4% K%
Range
19.8% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal5 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-05
ERA preseason3.80
ERA current pace6.03
ERA rolling p505.12
Observed weight59%
ERA
4.18 4.63 5.12 5.62 6.07
FIP
3.41 3.82 4.28 4.74 5.16
K%
19.5% 20.7% 21.9% 23.2% 24.3%
BB%
6.9% 7.6% 8.4% 9.2% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-05
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
18
ERA6.03
11
BB%9.5%
44 -29 vs proj
K%20.6%
39 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.353
13 -38 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
23 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
76
Hard-hit allowed46.4%
6
Whiff%20.6%
30 -35 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-05
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Changeup Stuff+99
33
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Slider Stuff+103
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Grayson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.353 2026-08-25: 0.3642026-08-26: 0.3642026-08-27: 0.3552026-08-28: 0.3552026-08-29: 0.3552026-08-30: 0.3552026-08-31: 0.3552026-09-01: 0.3552026-09-02: 0.3532026-09-03: 0.3532026-09-04: 0.3532026-09-05: 0.353 2026-08-25 2026-09-05 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Grayson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Grayson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.7%Changeup: 25.4%Slider: 10.6%Curveball: 10.3% FF54% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 54%CH 25%SL 11%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Grayson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphSlider: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.4% 281 107 qualified
CH 26.2% 146 99 limited sample
SL 14.4% 80 103 limited sample
CB 9.0% 50 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.91
K% Δ-0.028
Sample76.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.8----
Batters Faced622----
K%23.4%19.8% to 28.3%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.3%5.3% to 9.5%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%24.8%21.8% to 28.5%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.520.96 to 2.07+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3120.276 to 0.336+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.1% to 10.8%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.103.04 to 5.65+/- 1.30
FIP3.933.08 to 5.53+/- 1.23
WHIP1.2281.071 to 1.476+/- 0.203
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%21.4%
BB%8.0%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

580 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.7%
BB%5.9%
Barrel7.6%