Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Rodriguez, Grayson

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.4% K%
Range
19.8% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
9
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
18
Arsenal5 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace7.55
ERA rolling p505.20
Observed weight38%
ERA
4.25 4.70 5.20 5.70 6.15
FIP
3.24 3.66 4.13 4.60 5.02
K%
18.0% 19.4% 21.0% 22.6% 24.1%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.4% 9.3% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.76
4
ERA7.55
2
BB%11.0%
25 -46 vs proj
K%16.4%
12 -45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.394
2 -50 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
36
Fastball velo96.2
77
Hard-hit allowed51.0%
1
Whiff%17.1%
8 -56 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+97
18
Curveball Stuff+105
97
Fastball Stuff+103
51
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+106
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Grayson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.394 2026-07-06: 0.4002026-07-07: 0.4002026-07-08: 0.4002026-07-09: 0.4002026-07-10: 0.4002026-07-11: 0.4002026-07-12: 0.3942026-07-13: 0.3942026-07-14: 0.3942026-07-15: 0.3942026-07-16: 0.3942026-07-17: 0.394 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Grayson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Grayson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.9%Changeup: 21.5%Curveball: 13.6%Slider: 11.0% FF54% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 54%CH 21%CU 14%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Grayson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.8 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 80.5 mphCU81 mphSlider: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.4% 87 103 limited sample
SL 22.2% 39 106 limited sample
CH 15.3% 27 97 limited sample
CB 13.1% 23 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.45
K% Δ-0.070
Sample30.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.8----
Batters Faced622----
K%23.4%19.8% to 28.3%+/- 4.3%
BB%7.3%5.3% to 9.5%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%24.8%21.8% to 28.5%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.520.96 to 2.07+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3120.276 to 0.336+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.1% to 10.8%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.103.04 to 5.65+/- 1.30
FIP3.933.08 to 5.53+/- 1.23
WHIP1.2281.071 to 1.476+/- 0.203
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

500 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%21.4%
BB%8.0%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

580 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%21.7%
BB%5.9%
Barrel7.6%