Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Burke, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
18.0% to 29.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal7 metrics
79
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason3.71
ERA current pace3.27
ERA rolling p503.39
Observed weight74%
ERA
2.19 2.76 3.39 4.01 4.58
FIP
2.95 3.33 3.75 4.18 4.56
K%
23.3% 24.3% 25.5% 26.7% 27.7%
BB%
7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 9.3% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
78
ERA3.27
74
BB%8.5%
53
K%26.0%
77 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.296
70 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
38
Fastball velo94.7
54
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
54
Whiff%22.6%
48
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-02
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Mithrandir Stuff+107
92
Sinker Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+106
79
Changeup Stuff+105
79
Cutter Stuff+106
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burke, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.296 2026-08-22: 0.2942026-08-23: 0.2942026-08-24: 0.2942026-08-25: 0.2932026-08-26: 0.2932026-08-27: 0.2982026-08-28: 0.2982026-08-29: 0.2982026-08-30: 0.2982026-08-31: 0.2982026-09-01: 0.2982026-09-02: 0.296 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burke, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.3%Knuckle Curve: 19.8%Slider: 16.9%Sinker: 14.0%Cutter: 9.6%Changeup: 2.3% FF37% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 37%KC 20%SL 17%SI 14%FC 10%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphKnuckle Curve: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.2 mphKC79 mphSlider: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphSinker: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mphCutter: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.9 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 68.1 mphCS68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.4% 599 110 qualified
CB 20.2% 324 103 qualified
SL 16.6% 266 106 qualified
SI 14.6% 234 103 qualified
FC 8.3% 133 106 limited sample
CH 2.8% 45 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Knuckle Curve 23%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.34
K% Δ+0.025
Sample161.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.9----
Batters Faced317----
K%23.3%18.0% to 29.9%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.4%7.1% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%24.1%20.3% to 29.6%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.320.86 to 2.13+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3140.282 to 0.344+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 12.5%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.612.45 to 5.64+/- 1.60
FIP4.103.03 to 5.10+/- 1.03
WHIP1.3231.099 to 1.649+/- 0.275
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

369 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.7%
BB%11.3%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

341 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.5%