Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Burke, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
18.0% to 29.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.72
ERA current pace3.90
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.68 3.22 3.82 4.42 4.96
FIP
2.91 3.26 3.64 4.03 4.38
K%
20.1% 21.5% 23.2% 24.8% 26.3%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.7% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
73 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
60 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
50
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
68
K%22.5%
53
Whiff%18.8%
18 -42 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
90
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burke, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3192026-05-19: 0.3192026-05-21: 0.3192026-05-23: 0.3202026-05-24: 0.3202026-05-25: 0.3202026-05-26: 0.3202026-05-28: 0.3092026-05-29: 0.3082026-05-30: 0.3082026-05-31: 0.3082026-06-01: 0.302 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burke, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.1%Knuckle Curve: 21.3%Slider: 16.5%Sinker: 14.5%Cutter: 5.3%Changeup: 4.1% MIX FF 38%KC 21%SL 17%SI 15%FC 5%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.0FFKC: HB 0.2, IVB 4.7KCSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.6SLSI: HB 0.1, IVB 1.3SIFC: HB 0.1, IVB 1.8FCCH: HB -1.1, IVB 2.3CHCS: HB 0.3, IVB 5.2CS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.3% 398 110 qualified
CB 22.1% 236 103 qualified
SL 16.3% 174 108 limited sample
SI 15.7% 167 101 limited sample
FC 5.0% 53 107 limited sample
CH 3.6% 38 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Knuckle Curve 23%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.71
K% Δ-0.008
Sample74.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.1----
Batters Faced318----
K%23.3%18.0% to 29.9%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.4%7.1% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%24.1%20.3% to 29.6%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.320.86 to 2.13+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3140.282 to 0.344+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 12.5%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.612.45 to 5.64+/- 1.60
FIP4.103.03 to 5.10+/- 1.03
WHIP1.3231.098 to 1.649+/- 0.275
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

369 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.7%
BB%11.3%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

341 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.5%