Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Burke, Sean

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
18.0% to 29.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal7 metrics
80
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.72
ERA current pace3.41
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.32 2.89 3.51 4.14 4.70
FIP
3.00 3.36 3.77 4.17 4.54
K%
22.8% 24.0% 25.4% 26.8% 28.0%
BB%
6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
71
ERA3.41
67
BB%7.7%
64 +23 vs proj
K%26.1%
75 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.296
68 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
41
Fastball velo94.7
54
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
64
Whiff%22.0%
42 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+103
64
Fastball Stuff+110
93
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Changeup Stuff+107
84
Cutter Stuff+107
97
Sinker Stuff+101
44
Slider Stuff+108
88
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burke, Sean · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.296 2026-07-07: 0.3002026-07-08: 0.3002026-07-09: 0.3002026-07-10: 0.3002026-07-11: 0.3002026-07-12: 0.2962026-07-13: 0.2962026-07-14: 0.2962026-07-15: 0.2962026-07-16: 0.2962026-07-17: 0.2962026-07-18: 0.296 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burke, Sean · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.1%Knuckle Curve: 20.8%Slider: 17.4%Sinker: 14.5%Cutter: 6.2%Changeup: 3.0% FF38% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 38%KC 21%SL 17%SI 14%FC 6%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burke, Sean · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphKnuckle Curve: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.7 mphKC80 mphSlider: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphSinker: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mphCutter: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.6 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 68.1 mphCS68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.7% 435 110 qualified
CB 21.8% 251 103 qualified
SL 16.3% 188 108 limited sample
SI 15.4% 178 101 limited sample
FC 5.3% 61 107 limited sample
CH 3.6% 41 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Knuckle Curve 23%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.20
K% Δ+0.028
Sample113.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.0----
Batters Faced322----
K%23.3%18.0% to 29.9%+/- 5.9%
BB%9.4%7.1% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%24.1%20.3% to 29.6%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.320.86 to 2.13+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3140.282 to 0.344+/- 0.031
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 12.5%+/- 3.3%
ERA4.612.45 to 5.64+/- 1.60
FIP4.103.03 to 5.10+/- 1.03
WHIP1.3221.099 to 1.649+/- 0.275
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

369 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.7%
BB%11.3%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

341 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%20.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.5%