Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Wrobleski, Justin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
21.3% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.45
ERA current pace2.69
ERA rolling p503.34
Observed weight63%
ERA
2.15 2.71 3.34 3.96 4.53
FIP
2.51 2.99 3.52 4.05 4.53
K%
18.7% 19.9% 21.2% 22.5% 23.7%
BB%
4.4% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.99
91
ERA2.69
84
BB%4.9%
96 +22 vs proj
K%18.9%
26 -43 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.314
50 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.7%
48
Fastball velo94.2
47
Hard-hit allowed42.6%
26
Whiff%18.2%
12 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Slider Stuff+102
48
Changeup Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wrobleski, Justin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.314 2026-07-07: 0.3202026-07-08: 0.3202026-07-09: 0.3142026-07-10: 0.3142026-07-11: 0.3142026-07-12: 0.3142026-07-13: 0.3142026-07-14: 0.3142026-07-15: 0.3142026-07-16: 0.3142026-07-17: 0.3142026-07-18: 0.314 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wrobleski, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wrobleski, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.7%Slider: 30.5%Sinker: 6.9%Curveball: 5.4%Changeup: 4.9%Sweeper: 1.8% FF50% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 50%SL 30%SI 7%CU 5%CH 5%ST 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wrobleski, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 50% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSlider: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphSinker: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 74.7 mphCU75 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 2% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.8 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.3% 510 106 qualified
SL 34.1% 346 102 qualified
CB 5.8% 59 103 limited sample
SI 4.8% 49 100 limited sample
CH 4.4% 45 99 limited sample
FC 0.5% 5 54 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.281 vs 0.303 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 25%, Sinker 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.52
K% Δ-0.063
Sample103.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.3----
Batters Faced289----
K%25.2%21.3% to 31.7%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.1%4.9% to 10.8%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.5%18.0% to 26.4%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.430.80 to 2.08+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.2930.281 to 0.353+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.1% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.213.46 to 6.71+/- 1.63
FIP3.952.88 to 5.65+/- 1.38
WHIP1.2561.111 to 1.590+/- 0.240
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

138 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%24.2%
BB%5.8%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

318 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%22.9%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.1%