Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Wrobleski, Justin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
21.3% to 31.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 26 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-15
ERA preseason4.45
ERA current pace3.66
ERA rolling p503.89
Observed weight71%
ERA
2.64 3.23 3.89 4.54 5.14
FIP
2.90 3.40 3.96 4.52 5.03
K%
20.1% 21.1% 22.3% 23.4% 24.4%
BB%
4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA3.66
64
BB%5.2%
95 +18 vs proj
K%21.1%
43 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.326
33 -42 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.4%
20 -27 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
53
Hard-hit allowed43.2%
18
Whiff%19.4%
22
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-10-15
Fastball Stuff+108
91
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+102
47
Changeup Stuff+101
45
Curveball Stuff+104
72
Cutter Stuff+86
1
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wrobleski, Justin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.326 2026-10-04: 0.3262026-10-05: 0.3262026-10-06: 0.3262026-10-07: 0.3262026-10-08: 0.3262026-10-09: 0.3262026-10-10: 0.3262026-10-11: 0.3262026-10-12: 0.3262026-10-13: 0.3262026-10-14: 0.3262026-10-15: 0.326 2026-10-04 2026-10-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wrobleski, Justin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wrobleski, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.9%Slider: 28.5%Sinker: 8.1%Changeup: 4.8%Curveball: 4.5%Sweeper: 3.6% FF49% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 49%SL 28%SI 8%CH 5%CU 4%ST 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wrobleski, Justin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphSlider: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mphSinker: 8% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 75.3 mphCU75 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 83.3 mphFS83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.6% 677 108 qualified
SL 33.8% 452 102 qualified
SI 6.1% 82 103 limited sample
CB 4.9% 65 104 limited sample
CH 3.7% 49 101 limited sample
FC 1.0% 14 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.281 vs 0.303 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 25%, Sinker 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.57
K% Δ-0.041
Sample145.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.2----
Batters Faced288----
K%25.2%21.3% to 31.7%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.1%4.9% to 10.8%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.5%18.0% to 26.4%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.430.80 to 2.08+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.2930.281 to 0.353+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.1% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.213.46 to 6.71+/- 1.63
FIP3.952.88 to 5.65+/- 1.38
WHIP1.2561.111 to 1.590+/- 0.240
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

138 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%24.2%
BB%5.8%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

318 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%22.9%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.1%