Bowlan, Jonathan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.00 |
| ERA current pace | 4.67 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.18 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 40.2% | 119 | 108 | limited sample |
| SL | 27.0% | 80 | 97 | limited sample |
| CH | 15.2% | 45 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 14.9% | 44 | 110 | limited sample |
| CB | 2.7% | 8 | 98 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 59.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 256 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.8% | 16.7% to 29.1% | +/- 6.2% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 6.3% to 12.4% | +/- 3.0% |
| Whiff% | 28.3% | 22.9% to 33.3% | +/- 5.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.52 | 0.74 to 2.65 | +/- 0.95 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.320 | 0.250 to 0.354 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 4.5% to 12.1% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 4.45 | 2.44 to 5.97 | +/- 1.77 |
| FIP | 4.28 | 2.99 to 6.82 | +/- 1.92 |
| WHIP | 1.239 | 1.052 to 1.633 | +/- 0.291 |
97 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 9.7% |
132 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 20.1% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |