Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 7 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Madden, Ty

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
13.3% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Volatile contact Age 26 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-07
74
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal5 metrics
21
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-07
ERA preseason4.00
ERA current pace3.46
ERA rolling p503.78
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.49 3.10 3.78 4.46 5.08
FIP
2.27 2.98 3.76 4.55 5.25
K%
17.3% 19.2% 21.3% 23.5% 25.4%
BB%
6.0% 7.1% 8.2% 9.4% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-07
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
84
ERA3.46
68
BB%8.1%
61
K%24.8%
70 +32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.269
89 +56 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
89 +55 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
26
Hard-hit allowed30.5%
94
Whiff%24.0%
59 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-07
Cutter Stuff+97
15
Fastball Stuff+95
12
Mithrandir Stuff+97
14
Sinker Stuff+102
53
Slider Stuff+95
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Madden, Ty · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.269 2026-08-27: 0.2692026-08-28: 0.2692026-08-29: 0.2692026-08-30: 0.2692026-08-31: 0.2692026-09-01: 0.2692026-09-02: 0.2692026-09-03: 0.2692026-09-04: 0.2692026-09-05: 0.2692026-09-06: 0.2692026-09-07: 0.269 2026-08-27 2026-09-07 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Madden, Ty · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Madden, Ty · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.4%Slider: 22.1%Cutter: 19.2%Split-Finger: 13.9%Sinker: 10.4%Knuckle Curve: 0.9% FF33% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 33%SL 22%FC 19%FS 14%SI 10%KC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Madden, Ty · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.8 mphSL84 mphCutter: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.4 mphFC87 mphSplit-Finger: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.3 mphFS85 mphSinker: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphKnuckle Curve: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 78.8 mphKC79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.6% 130 95 limited sample
FC 23.7% 80 97 limited sample
SL 23.1% 78 95 limited sample
SI 13.1% 44 102 limited sample
CB 1.5% 5 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans on stable run prevention more than one extreme carrying pitch trait.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.01
K% Δ+0.043
Sample38.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.0----
Batters Faced299----
K%20.6%13.3% to 25.4%+/- 6.1%
BB%8.7%5.7% to 12.2%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%21.8%14.7% to 26.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.380.38 to 2.16+/- 0.89
xwOBA Against0.3280.244 to 0.365+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.5% to 10.7%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.472.38 to 5.97+/- 1.80
FIP4.092.72 to 6.85+/- 2.07
WHIP1.3920.990 to 1.653+/- 0.332
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

55 career BF

xwOBA0.220
K%12.7%
BB%7.9%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

52 career BF

xwOBA0.209
K%13.2%
BB%5.9%
Barrel6.0%