Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Nov 12 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Weiss, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
19.3% K%
Range
3.2% to 24.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-11-12
10
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
18
Arsenal6 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-11-12
ERA preseason2.74
ERA current pace7.62
ERA rolling p504.53
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.80 3.62 4.53 5.44 6.27
FIP
3.01 3.98 5.06 6.13 7.10
K%
13.1% 16.4% 20.1% 23.8% 27.0%
BB%
8.2% 9.8% 11.6% 13.5% 15.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-11-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP2.32
0
ERA7.62
1
BB%17.3%
1 -32 vs proj
K%21.6%
46
xwOBA allowed0.379
3 -82 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
9 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo94.7
54
Hard-hit allowed49.4%
1
Whiff%21.9%
47
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-11-12
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Changeup Stuff+96
17
Curveball Stuff+102
40
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Sinker Stuff+86
3
Slider Stuff+102
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weiss, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.379 2026-11-01: 0.3792026-11-02: 0.3792026-11-03: 0.3792026-11-04: 0.3792026-11-05: 0.3792026-11-06: 0.3792026-11-07: 0.3792026-11-08: 0.3792026-11-09: 0.3792026-11-10: 0.3792026-11-11: 0.3792026-11-12: 0.379 2026-11-01 2026-11-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weiss, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weiss, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.3%Sweeper: 31.8%Changeup: 14.9%Sinker: 11.5%Curveball: 3.5% FF38% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 38%ST 32%CH 15%SI 12%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weiss, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSweeper: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.8 mphST84 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphSinker: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.9% 195 104 limited sample
SL 32.4% 171 102 limited sample
CH 14.8% 78 96 limited sample
SI 12.5% 66 86 limited sample
CB 3.4% 18 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.50
K% Δ+0.023
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.1----
Batters Faced128----
K%19.3%3.2% to 24.5%+/- 10.7%
BB%10.3%0.3% to 10.2%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%23.4%6.8% to 31.2%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.380.00 to 1.64+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.2790.001 to 0.308+/- 0.154
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.110.00 to 4.74+/- 2.37
FIP4.100.47 to 6.06+/- 2.80
WHIP1.2830.126 to 1.420+/- 0.647
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

7 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%5.0%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

14 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%5.3%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%