Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Simpson, Josh

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.0% K%
Range
17.1% to 32.7%
Live Δ
--
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
79
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal3 metrics
79
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.28
ERA current pace9.00
ERA rolling p504.56
Observed weight6%
ERA
1.91 3.16 4.56 5.96 7.21
FIP
3.54 4.16 4.85 5.54 6.17
K%
16.4% 19.9% 23.8% 27.7% 31.2%
BB%
6.4% 8.8% 11.5% 14.1% 16.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Sinker Stuff+107
88
Slider Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2025Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Simpson, Josh · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Simpson, Josh · 2025 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 25.6%Curveball: 25.2%Sinker: 22.4%4-Seam Fastball: 10.9%Changeup: 10.8%Slider: 5.1% ST26% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 26%CU 25%SI 22%FF 11%CH 11%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Simpson, Josh · 2025 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 26% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 80.5 mphCU80 mphSinker: 22% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.2 mphCH89 mphSlider: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 50.0% 20 107 limited sample
SL 37.5% 15 103 limited sample
CB 10.0% 4 114 limited sample
FB 2.5% 1 32 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.257 vs 0.277 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 26%, Curveball 25%, Sinker 22%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.5----
Batters Faced158----
K%24.0%17.1% to 32.7%+/- 7.8%
BB%10.5%6.3% to 16.9%+/- 5.3%
Whiff%24.3%18.2% to 30.2%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.240.27 to 2.17+/- 0.95
xwOBA Against0.2940.211 to 0.334+/- 0.062
Barrel% Allowed7.2%2.6% to 10.9%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.872.05 to 7.68+/- 2.81
FIP4.182.76 to 5.55+/- 1.39
WHIP1.3381.051 to 1.791+/- 0.370
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

82 career BF

xwOBA0.257
K%21.9%
BB%11.5%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

91 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%20.4%
BB%11.2%
Barrel6.6%