Simpson, Josh
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.28 |
| ERA current pace | 7.71 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.42 |
| Observed weight | 4% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 50.0% | 20 | 107 | limited sample |
| SL | 37.5% | 15 | 103 | limited sample |
| CB | 10.0% | 4 | 117 | limited sample |
| FB | 2.5% | 1 | 26 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 33.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 159 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.0% | 17.1% to 32.7% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 10.5% | 6.3% to 16.9% | +/- 5.3% |
| Whiff% | 24.3% | 18.2% to 30.2% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.24 | 0.27 to 2.17 | +/- 0.95 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.294 | 0.211 to 0.334 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.2% | 2.6% to 10.9% | +/- 4.1% |
| ERA | 3.87 | 2.05 to 7.68 | +/- 2.81 |
| FIP | 4.18 | 2.76 to 5.55 | +/- 1.39 |
| WHIP | 1.338 | 1.051 to 1.791 | +/- 0.370 |
82 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 11.5% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
91 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 11.2% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |